Climate Change Impacts on the Production and Sustainability of Offshore Wind Energy in the Persian Gulf

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Disaster Engineering, Education and Environmental Systems, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran

2 Research Institute of Marine Sciences - University of Tehran - Tehran

3 Department of Project and Construction Management, Faculty of Architecture, University of Tehran

4 Department of Civil Engineering

‎10.22052/deej.2026.258590.1141

Abstract

The present study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on offshore wind energy potential along the Bushehr coast. In this research, wind density and wind power were calculated using the Weibull distribution, while energy potential and economic indicators were assessed using the InVEST software. Wind speed data were simulated using the CESM2 climate model under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the period 2025–2050. To address uncertainty, a Monte Carlo simulation approach was employed, and a tornado sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the key parameters influencing LCOE. The results indicate that the CESM2 model has good capability in reproducing historical wind speed data. The mean observed wind speed was 5.78 m/s, increasing to 6.1–6.7 m/s under future scenarios. Each 5 MW turbine is capable of generating 17.5 GWh of energy annually, while a 20-turbine wind farm can produce up to 475 GWh per year. The LCOE decreases from 0.015 to 0.010 USD/kWh. Monte Carlo results show noticeable variability in LCOE due to input uncertainty, while the tornado analysis reveals that wind speed is the most influential factor affecting LCOE. Overall, the results highlight the significant potential of the Bushehr coastline for sustainable offshore wind energy development.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Desert Ecosystem Engineering
Volume 15, Issue 51
September 2026

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics