Evaluating the Effectiveness of Integrated Demand Management Scenarios in Controlling Aquifer Depletion: A Case Study of the Qorveh–Dehgolan Basin

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Faculty of Member

2 Sari University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources

‎10.22052/deej.2026.258197.1133

Abstract

In arid and semi-arid regions, the decline in surface water resources due to population growth, agricultural development, and climate change has placed severe pressure on aquifers. Iran, especially in the agricultural sector, is facing a serious decline in groundwater. The Qorveh-Dehgolan basin in Kurdistan Province is a prominent example of this crisis; Thus, the annual shortage of 25 to 26 million cubic meters of agricultural water and summer drought have caused a cumulative decrease of 90.2 million cubic meters in the volume of the three main aquifers during the years 2007 to 2021. Climate projections under SSP scenarios also show a 6 to 17 percent decrease in dam inflow runoff and an increase in water shortage to 57 million cubic meters per year by 2045. This study examined the effect of different demand management scenarios using the WEAP model and the IHACRES model. The results showed that although each of the management scenarios alone has positive effects, However, the combined scenario is the most effective and, by reducing the annual decline slope of aquifers and an average improvement of 8.87%, allows some aquifers to return to their initial conditions and reduces pressure on surface resources. This approach is a practical model for sustainable water management in Iran's dry basins.

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Desert Ecosystem Engineering
Volume 15, Issue 51
September 2026

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