Identification of temperature hot spots in the Zagros natural habitat based on global standard indicators revealing climate change

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار موسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع، ایران، تهران

2 استاد موسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور، ایران، تهران

3 محقق بیابان زدایی، مرکز تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی ومنابع طبیعی لرستان، پردیس تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی بروجرد

‎10.22052/deej.2026.258289.1135

چکیده

One of the most important consequences of climate change is the reduction of forest area. The decrease in the area and the decline of oak forests in the Zagros ecosystem in western Iran, especially in the last two decades, is directly and indirectly affected by the occurrence of climate change, especially the increase in temperature This study investigates climate change impacts on the Zagros oak forest ecosystem in western Iran, focusing on warming trends and their spatial distribution. Using observational data from 34 synoptic stations and the ClimPACT software in R, we analyzed eight temperature indices (SU25, SU30, SU35, TN90p, TX90p, TX50p, WSDI2, WSDI6) standardized by the Expert Team on Climate Risk and Sector-Specific Climate Indices (ET-CRSCI). Results reveal a significant warming trend, with the most pronounced increases in warm temperature indices occurring at the highest latitudes of the northern Zagros and the highest elevations of the southern Zagros. Persistent hotspots were identified in northwestern Fars and southwestern Ilam provinces. Critically, the index representing prolonged warm spells (WSDI6) showed the strongest increase in the southern Zagros, an area coinciding with the highest frequency of wildfires in the past decade. This suggests that persistent heat accelerates ecosystem drying, thereby intensifying fire risk and damage. Identifying these thermal hotspots provides crucial insights for adaptive management and planning, enabling more resilient conservation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on this vital ecosystem.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Identification of temperature hot spots in the Zagros natural habitat based on global standard indicators revealing climate change

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fatemeh Dargahian 1
  • Mehdi Pourhashemi 2
  • Somayeh Heydarnezhad 3
1 Associate Professor, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO)
2 Prof., Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran.
3 Ph.D. in Desertification, Researcher at the Desertification Research Department of Lorestan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Borujerd Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Campus
چکیده [English]

One of the most important consequences of climate change is the reduction of forest area. The decrease in the area and the decline of oak forests in the Zagros ecosystem in western Iran, especially in the last two decades, is directly and indirectly affected by the occurrence of climate change, especially the increase in temperature This study investigates climate change impacts on the Zagros oak forest ecosystem in western Iran, focusing on warming trends and their spatial distribution. Using observational data from 34 synoptic stations and the ClimPACT software in R, we analyzed eight temperature indices (SU25, SU30, SU35, TN90p, TX90p, TX50p, WSDI2, WSDI6) standardized by the Expert Team on Climate Risk and Sector-Specific Climate Indices (ET-CRSCI). Results reveal a significant warming trend, with the most pronounced increases in warm temperature indices occurring at the highest latitudes of the northern Zagros and the highest elevations of the southern Zagros. Persistent hotspots were identified in northwestern Fars and southwestern Ilam provinces. Critically, the index representing prolonged warm spells (WSDI6) showed the strongest increase in the southern Zagros, an area coinciding with the highest frequency of wildfires in the past decade. This suggests that persistent heat accelerates ecosystem drying, thereby intensifying fire risk and damage. Identifying these thermal hotspots provides crucial insights for adaptive management and planning, enabling more resilient conservation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on this vital ecosystem.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • ClimPACT
  • forest ecosystem
  • Decline of oak forests
  • Temperature hot spot
  • Warm Index

مراجع

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مهندسی اکوسیستم بیابان
دوره 14، شماره 49
اسفند 1404
صفحه 93-111

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