مهندسی اکوسیستم بیابان

مهندسی اکوسیستم بیابان

Identification of temperature hot spots in the Zagros natural habitat based on global standard indicators revealing climate change

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
فاطمه درگاهیان 1
مهدی پورهاشمی 2
سمیه حیدرنژاد 3
1 دانشیار موسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع، ایران، تهران
2 استاد موسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور، ایران، تهران
3 محقق بیابان زدایی، مرکز تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی ومنابع طبیعی لرستان، پردیس تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی بروجرد
10.22052/deej.2026.258289.1135
چکیده
One of the most important consequences of climate change is the reduction of forest area. The decrease in the area and the decline of oak forests in the Zagros ecosystem in western Iran, especially in the last two decades, is directly and indirectly affected by the occurrence of climate change, especially the increase in temperature This study investigates climate change impacts on the Zagros oak forest ecosystem in western Iran, focusing on warming trends and their spatial distribution. Using observational data from 34 synoptic stations and the ClimPACT software in R, we analyzed eight temperature indices (SU25, SU30, SU35, TN90p, TX90p, TX50p, WSDI2, WSDI6) standardized by the Expert Team on Climate Risk and Sector-Specific Climate Indices (ET-CRSCI). Results reveal a significant warming trend, with the most pronounced increases in warm temperature indices occurring at the highest latitudes of the northern Zagros and the highest elevations of the southern Zagros. Persistent hotspots were identified in northwestern Fars and southwestern Ilam provinces. Critically, the index representing prolonged warm spells (WSDI6) showed the strongest increase in the southern Zagros, an area coinciding with the highest frequency of wildfires in the past decade. This suggests that persistent heat accelerates ecosystem drying, thereby intensifying fire risk and damage. Identifying these thermal hotspots provides crucial insights for adaptive management and planning, enabling more resilient conservation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on this vital ecosystem.
کلیدواژه‌ها
ClimPACT
forest ecosystem
Decline of oak forests
Temperature hot spot
Warm Index
موضوعات
  1. Ahmadi, E., Kowsari, M., Azadfar, D., & Salehi Jouzani, G. (2019). Bacillus pumilus and Stenotrophomonas maltophilia as two potentially causative agents involved in Persian oak decline in Zagros forests (Iran). Forest Pathology, 49(5), e12541
  2. Attarod, P, Sadeghi, S. M. Taheri Sartshanizi, F., Saroei, S, Abbasian, P., Masihpoor, M., Kordrostami, F., Dirikvandi, A. (2016). The effect of climatic factors and evapotranspiration on the decline of Central Zagros forests in Lorestan province. Research on protection and conservation of forests and rangelands of Iran, 13 (2), 97-112.
  3. Azizi, G., Miri, M., Mohammadi, H., Pourhashemi, M. 2015. Analysis of relationship between forest decline and precipitation changes in Ilam Province. Journal of Forest and Poplar Research, 23(3): 502-515.
  4. Beygi Heidarlou, H., & Karamat Mirshekarlou, A. (2024). Understanding the effects of climate change on wildfires in the Iranian Northern Zagros Forests. Forest Research and Development, 10(3), 379-393. doi: 10.30466/jfrd.2024.55283.1720.
  5. Bedrood, F., Gh., H., Valipour, A. (2021). Application of the Logical Framework Analysis for planning and evaluation of oak decline’s forest management plan. Iranian Journal of Forest and Poplar Research, 29(1), 53-64.
  6. Clatterbuck, W.K. and Kauffman, B.W., 2006. Managing oak decline. Professional hardwood notes,
  7. University of Kentucky’s Cooperative Extension Publication FOR-099, University of Tennessee,
  8. Knoxville, Tennessee, 6p.
  9. Colangelo, M., Camarero, J. J., Borghetti, M., Gentilesca, T., Oliva, J., Redondo, M. A., & Ripullone, F. (2018). Drought and Phytophthora are associated with the decline of oak species in southern Italy. Frontiers in plant science, 9, 1595.‏
  10. Dargahian, F., & Razavizadeh, S. (2022). Detection of heat waves in Zagros decay monitoring sites Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. Iranian Journal of Forest and Range Protection Research, 20(1), 1-14.
  11. Dargahian F, Pourhashemi M. Detection of Climate Change Based on Warm Temperature Indices in Zagros Forest Ecosystem; Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province. ijae 2021; 10 (3) :81-99.
  12. Dargahian, F., Pourhashemi, M. and Lotfinasabasl, S. (2025). Investigating the occurrence of drought in the forest ecosystem of Zagros due to its coincidence with the decline of oak forests. Iranian Journal of Forest and Range Protection Research, 22(2), 285-308.  doi: 10.22092/ijfrpr.2024.366110.1631
  13. Dargahian, F., Ghasemi Aryan, Y. and Heydarnejad, S. (2024). Revealing the change of the frost indices as a consequence of climate change, a case study of Northern Zagros forests (Azerbaijan). Iranian Journal of Forest and Range Protection Research, 22(1), 30-46. doi: 10.22092/ijfrpr.2024.363591.1601
  14. Di Filippo, A., Alessandrini, A., Biondi, F., Blasi, S., Portoghesi, L., & Piovesan, G. (2010). Climate change and oak growth decline: Dendroecology and stand productivity of a Turkey oak (Quercus cerris L.) old stored coppice in Central Italy. Annals of Forest Science, 67(7), 706-706.‏
  15. Gea-Izquierdo, G., Natalini, F., & Cardillo, E. (2021). Holm oak death is accelerated but not sudden and expresses drought legacies. Science of the Total Environment, 754, 141793.‏
  16. Ghadirian, O., Hemami, M., Soffianian, A., Pourmanaphi, S., Malekian, M., Tarkesh, M. (2018). Probabilistic prediction of forest decline in Lorestan province using a combined modeling approach. Iranian Journal of Forest and Range Protection Research, 15(2), 131-146.
  17. Goodarzi, M., Pourhashemi, M., & Azizi, Z. (2019). Investigation on Zagros forests cover changes under the recent droughts using satellite imagery. Journal of Forest Science, 65(1), 9-17.‏
  18. Haidarian Aghakhani, M., Tamartash, R., Jafarian, Z., Tarkesh Esfahani, M., & Tatian, M. (2017). Predicting the impacts of climate change on Persian oak (Quercus brantii) using Species Distribution Modelling in Central Zagros for conservation planning. Journal of Environmental Studies, 43(3), 497-511.
  19. Jafari M, Hosseini, A, hoseinzadeh J. Spatial Distribution Map of Degradation in Zagros Forests of Ilam city. ifej. 2020; 8 (15):1-9.
  20. Jafari, A., & Mafi Gholami, D. (2017). Wildfire hazard mapping using an ensemble method of frequency ratio with Shannon’s entropy. Iranian Journal of Forest and Poplar Research, 25(2), 232-243. doi: 10.22092/ijfpr.2017.111758
  21. Hamzehpour, M., Kia-daliri, H., Bordbar, K. (2011). Preliminary study of manna oak (Quercus brantii Lindl.) tree decline in Dashte-Barm of Kazeroon, Fars province. Iranian Journal of Forest and Poplar Research, 19(2), 363-352. doi: 10.22092/ijfpr.2011.107578
  22. Hernández-Lambraño, R. E., de la Cruz, D. R., & Sánchez-Agudo, J. Á. (2019). Spatial oak decline models to inform conservation planning in the Central-Western Iberian Peninsula. Forest Ecology and Management, 441, 115-126.‏
  23. Hosseinzadeh, J., Pourhashemi, M. (2017). Emergence of desiccation within Zagros forests decline. Nature of Iran, 2 (4), 18-21.
  24. Karamian M., mirzaei J. 2020. The Most Important Factors Affecting Persian Oak (Quercus brantii) Decline in Ilam Province. Ecology of Iranian Forest, 2020; 8 (15):93-103.
  25. Keča, N., Koufakis, I., Dietershagen, J., Nowakowska, J. A., & Oszako, T. (2016). European oak decline phenomenon in relationto climatic changes.
  26. Khajei, N., Etemad, V. and Bazrafshan, J. (2025). Predicting climate change impacts on distribution of Brant's oak trees (Quercus brantii Lindl.) in the Zagros forests, Fars Province. Iranian Journal of Forest, 15(4), 393-409. doi: 10.22034/ijf.2023.344228.1876.
  27. Kyani Asl M, Soltani A, Mafi-Gholami D. Post-Fire Sprouting Dynamics of Quercus brantii Lindl.: Assessing Stem Size Influence and Adaptive Responses to Recurrent Fires. ECOPERSIA 2025; 13 (3) :231-241
  28. Kim, H. N., Jin, H. Y., Kwak, M. J., Khaine, I., You, H. N., Lee, T. Y., ... & Woo, S. Y. (2017). Why does Quercus suber species decline in Mediterranean areas? Journal of Asia-Pacific Biodiversity, 10(3), 337-341.‏
  29. Kooh Soltani, S., Alesheikh, A., Ghermezcheshmeh, B., Mehri, S. (2018). An evaluation of potential Oak decline Forest of the Zagros using GIS, RS, FAHP methods. Iranian journal of Eco hydrology, 5(2), 713-725.
  30. Lisa Alexander, C., 2015. WMO CCl Expert Team on Sector-specific Climate Indices (ET SCI) Workshop, Nadi, Fiji 7th – 11th.
  31. ‏Maroofzadeh, E., Attarod, P. (2021). Are changes in forest cover in the North Zagros vegetation area in line with the trend of climatic parameters? Iranian Forest Journal, 12 (4), 449-466.
  32. Matinfar, H.R., Shamsipour, A. and Sadeghi, H. (2025). Investigating the consequences of climate change on the organic carbon content of soils in the forest areas of Middle Zagros. Climate Change Research, 6(22), 97-114. doi: 10.30488/ccr.2024.475201.1243.
  33. Misaghi, M., Golchin, A. and Askari, M. S. (2024). Simulating Changes in Organic Carbon of Forest Soils Due to Climate Change at Different Altitudes Using the Roth C Model. Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 13(3), 150-183. doi: 10.22067/geoeh.2024.85968.1445.
  34. Mirzaei, S., Attarod, P. and Mostafanezhad Nesheli, K. (2025). The effect of long-term trends of precipitation and consecutive dry days on Zagros forests decline in Ilam Province. Forest and Wood Products, 78(1), 1-10. doi: 10.22059/jfwp.2025.392721.1344.
  35. Moreno-Fernández, D., Ledo, A., Martín-Benito, D., Cañellas, I., & Gea-Izquierdo, G. (2019). Negative synergistic effects of land-use legacies and climate drive widespread oak decline in evergreen Mediterranean open woodlands. Forest Ecology and Management, 432, 884-894.‏
  36. Mozafari, F., Karamshahi, A., & Heydari, M. (2019). Mapping Dieback Intensity Distribution in Zagros Oak Forests Using Geo-statistics and Artificial Neural Network. Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology, 8(3), 31-44.
  37. ‏Molayee, M. , Rahimi, D. and Zakerinejad, R. (2025). Reanalysis of Climate Change Impact on Zagros Oak Forest Cover (Khuzestan Province). Journal of Geography and Regional Development, 23(1), -. doi: 10.22067/jgrd.2025.93010.1548.
  38. Naghipour, A. A., Haidarian, M., & Sangoony, H. (2019). Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of Pistacia atlantica in the Central Zagros. Journal of Plant Ecosystem onservation, 6(13), 197-214.‏
  39. Naseri, M., ShataeeJooibari, S., Mohammadi, J., & Ahmadi, S. (2020). Investigation on the Amount of Mortality of Iranian Oak Trees (Quercus brantii Lindi) using Satellite Imagery (Case study: Dashtebarm forests of Fars Province). Ecology of Iranian Forest, 8(16), 72-80.‏
  40. Pourhashemi, M., Jahanbazi Goujani, H., Hoseinzadeh, J., Bordbar, S.K., Iranmanesh, Y., Khodakarami, Y. 2017. The history of oak decline in Zagros forests. Nature of Iran, 2 (1), 37-30.
  41. Ogaya, R., Liu, D., Barbeta, A., & Peñuelas, J. (2020). Stem mortality and forest dieback in a 20-years experimental drought in a Mediterranean holm oak forest. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 2, 89.‏
  42. Pato, M., moradi, S. and henareh, J. (2025). Investigating the effects of climate change and dust storms on the health and sustainability of the Zagros forest ecosystem. Journal of Drought and Climate change Research, (), -. doi: 10.22077/jdcr.2025.9043.1126.
  43. Reed, K., Denman, S., Leather, S. R., Forster, J., & Inward, D. J. (2018). The lifecycle of Agrilus biguttatus: The role of temperature in its development and distribution, and implications for Acute Oak Decline. Agricultural and forest entomology, 20(3), 334-346.‏
  44. Romagnoli, M., Moroni, S., Recanatesi, F., Salvati, R., & Mugnozza, G. S. (2018). Climate factors and oak decline based on tree-ring analysis. A case study of peri-urban forest in the Mediterranean area. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, 34, 17-28.‏
  45. Rostam Zadeh, H., Darabi, S., Shahabi, H. (2017). Change detection of Oak forests using object-based classification of multitemporal Landsat imageries (Case study: forests of the northern province of Ilam). Journal of RS and GIS for Natural Resources, 8(2), 92-110.
  46. Rodríguez-Calcerrada, J., Sancho-Knapik, D., Martin-StPaul, N. K., Limousin, J. M., McDowell, N. G., & Gil-Pelegrín, E. (2017). Drought-induced oak decline—factors involved, physiological dysfunctions, and potential attenuation by forestry practices. In Oaks physiological ecology. Exploring the functional diversity of genus Quercus L.(pp. 419-451). Springer, Cham
  47. Safari, A., & Sohrabi, H. (2019). Effect of climate change and local management on aboveground carbon dynamics (1987–2015) in Zagros oak forests using Landsat time-series imagery. Applied Geography, 110, 102048.‏
  48. Saleh, I., Rafiee, H., Mirbagheri, S. (2021). Investigating the effects of climatic and economic variables on forest degradation of Iran. Iranian Journal of Forest, 12(4), 467-489.
  49. Sallé, A., Nageleisen, L. M., & Lieutier, F. (2014). Bark and wood boring insects involved in oak declines in Europe: current knowledge and future prospects in a context of climate change. Forest Ecology and Management, 328, 79-93.‏
  50. Shiravand, H., Khaledi, Sh., Behzadi, S. 2019. Evaluation and Prediction of Decline of Oak Forests in Middle Zagros (Lorestan Section) with a Climate Change Approach. Journal of Forest and Range Protection Research, 33(1): 64.81.
  51. Shiravand H, Khaledi S, Behzadi S, sanjabi H A. 2020. Monitoring and Assessing the Changes in the Coverage and Decline of Oak Forests in Lorestan Province using Satellite Images and BFAST Model. Researches in Geographical Sciences. 20 (57):265-280.
  52. Shehabi, H., & Akbari, E. (2020). Investigation and prediction on Forests Covers Changes Using Fuzzy Object-Based Satellite Image Classification and CA-Markov (case study: City of Romeshkan). Journal of Environmental Research and Technology, 6(6), 103.
  53. Soosani, J., radmeh, A., Ghalebahmani, S., balapour, S., Sepahvand, A. (2014). Effects of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) on the width of Rings-growth in Persian coppice oak in the central Zagros (Case study: Khoramabad). Journal of Wood and Forest Science and Technology, 21(2), 43-60.
  54. Tulik, M., & Bijak, S. (2016). Are climatic factors responsible for the process of oak decline in Poland?. Dendrochronologia, 38, 18-25.‏
  55. Valavi, R., Shafizadeh-Moghadam, H., Matkan, A., Shakiba, A., Mirbagheri, B., & Kia, S. H. (2019). Modelling climate change effects on Zagros forests in Iran using individual and ensemble forecasting approaches. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 137(1), 1015-1025.
  56. Zarafshar, M., Neghdar S., Jahanbazi Gojani, H., Pourhashemi, M., Abbasi. (2020). Drying of pure masses of Persian oak (Quercus brantii Lindl.) In the forests of South Zagros, Koohmoreh sorkhi region of Fars province. Iranian Forest Journal, 12 (2), 291-303.
مهندسی اکوسیستم بیابان
دوره 14، شماره 49
زمستان 1404
صفحه 93-111