مهندسی اکوسیستم بیابان

مهندسی اکوسیستم بیابان

Identification of temperature hot spots in the Zagros natural habitat based on global standard indicators revealing climate change

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
فاطمه درگاهیان 1
مهدی پورهاشمی 2
سمیه حیدرنژاد 3
1 دانشیار موسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع، ایران، تهران
2 استاد موسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور، ایران، تهران
3 محقق بیابان زدایی، مرکز تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی ومنابع طبیعی لرستان، پردیس تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی بروجرد
‎10.22052/deej.2026.258289.1135
چکیده
One of the most important consequences of climate change is the reduction of forest area. The decrease in the area and the decline of oak forests in the Zagros ecosystem in western Iran, especially in the last two decades, is directly and indirectly affected by the occurrence of climate change, especially the increase in temperature This study investigates climate change impacts on the Zagros oak forest ecosystem in western Iran, focusing on warming trends and their spatial distribution. Using observational data from 34 synoptic stations and the ClimPACT software in R, we analyzed eight temperature indices (SU25, SU30, SU35, TN90p, TX90p, TX50p, WSDI2, WSDI6) standardized by the Expert Team on Climate Risk and Sector-Specific Climate Indices (ET-CRSCI). Results reveal a significant warming trend, with the most pronounced increases in warm temperature indices occurring at the highest latitudes of the northern Zagros and the highest elevations of the southern Zagros. Persistent hotspots were identified in northwestern Fars and southwestern Ilam provinces. Critically, the index representing prolonged warm spells (WSDI6) showed the strongest increase in the southern Zagros, an area coinciding with the highest frequency of wildfires in the past decade. This suggests that persistent heat accelerates ecosystem drying, thereby intensifying fire risk and damage. Identifying these thermal hotspots provides crucial insights for adaptive management and planning, enabling more resilient conservation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on this vital ecosystem.
کلیدواژه‌ها
ClimPACT
forest ecosystem
Decline of oak forests
Temperature hot spot
Warm Index
موضوعات
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مهندسی اکوسیستم بیابان
دوره 14، شماره 49
زمستان 1404
صفحه 93-111