Investigating Lagged Cross-correlation between Wind Erosion and Drought in Southern Iran’s arid regions Investigating Lagged Cross-correlation between Wind Erosion and Drought in Southern Iran’s arid regions

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 Combat to desertification, Natural Resource Faculty, Ardakan University, Yazd, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Jiroft , Kerman,Iran

3 Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (SCWMRI), Tehran, Iran

4 Department Of Information Technology, Payame Noor University, Iran

چکیده

This study sought to detect the highest temporal correlation between wind erosion and drought in southern Iran's arid lands based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Dust Storm Index (SDSI) over a 50-year period (1965-2014). Using the Mann- Kendall test, changes in SPI (as a proxy of meteorological drought) and SDSI (as a proxy of wind erosion) trends were analyzed in temporal resolution (3, 6, 9, 12, 18, and 24 monthly time series). The wind erosion's response time to drought was estimated by Lagged cross-correlation. The results revealed a decreasing trend in the SPI time series, particularly in the long-term series (12, 18, and 24-month), and an increasing trend in the SDSI series in different time scales, from short-term to long-term series. These findings indicate the exacerbation of drought and wind erosion in the study region. Moreover, the cross-correlation analysis showed that the relationships between SPI and SDSI were negative at the level of 5% in all the time series. The maximum correlation was obtained from the cross-correlation between the 12-month SPI and 18-month SDSI without time lag (R= -0.22; α<0.05). These results indicated that in southern Iran's arid regions, changes in dust events had been affected by long-term drought. Therefore, it is expected that after long-term droughts, which considerably affect the soil moisture contents, the dust storms are intensified. The Finding of this research can help planners take necessary measures against sand and dust storm hazards.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating Lagged Cross-correlation between Wind Erosion and Drought in Southern Iran’s arid regions Investigating Lagged Cross-correlation between Wind Erosion and Drought in Southern Iran’s arid regions

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fatemeh Roustaei 1
  • Zohre Ebrahimi khusfi 2
  • Mohamad Reza Kousari 3
  • Mostafa Mokhtari 4
1 Combat to desertification, Natural Resource Faculty, Ardakan University, Yazd, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Jiroft , Kerman,Iran
3 Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (SCWMRI), Tehran, Iran
4 Department Of Information Technology, Payame Noor University, Iran
چکیده [English]

This study sought to detect the highest temporal correlation between wind erosion and drought in southern Iran's arid lands based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Dust Storm Index (SDSI) over a 50-year period (1965-2014). Using the Mann- Kendall test, changes in SPI (as a proxy of meteorological drought) and SDSI (as a proxy of wind erosion) trends were analyzed in temporal resolution (3, 6, 9, 12, 18, and 24 monthly time series). The wind erosion's response time to drought was estimated by Lagged cross-correlation. The results revealed a decreasing trend in the SPI time series, particularly in the long-term series (12, 18, and 24-month), and an increasing trend in the SDSI series in different time scales, from short-term to long-term series. These findings indicate the exacerbation of drought and wind erosion in the study region. Moreover, the cross-correlation analysis showed that the relationships between SPI and SDSI were negative at the level of 5% in all the time series. The maximum correlation was obtained from the cross-correlation between the 12-month SPI and 18-month SDSI without time lag (R= -0.22; α<0.05). These results indicated that in southern Iran's arid regions, changes in dust events had been affected by long-term drought. Therefore, it is expected that after long-term droughts, which considerably affect the soil moisture contents, the dust storms are intensified. The Finding of this research can help planners take necessary measures against sand and dust storm hazards.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • SDSI
  • Drought
  • Wind Erosion
  • Cross-Correlation
  • Soil Erosion
  1. Abbasi, H., Opp, C., Groll, M., Rohipour, H. and Gohardoust, A., 2019. Assessment of the distribution and activity of dunes in Iran based on mobility indices and ground data, Aeolian Research, 41: 100539.
  2. Achakulwisut, P., Mickley, L. and Anenberg, S., 2018. Drought-sensitivity of fine dust in the US Southwest: Implications for air quality and public health under future climate change, Environmental Research Letters, 13: 054025.
  3. Ahani, H., Kherad, M., Kousari, M. R., Rezaeian-Zadeh, M., Karampour, M. A., Ejraee, F. and Kamali, S., 2012. An investigation of trends in precipitation volume for the last three decades in different regions of Fars province, Iran, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 109: 361-382.
  4. Atafar, Z., Pourpak, Z., Yunesian, M., Nicknam, H., Hassanvand, M. S., Soleimanifar, N., Saghafi, S., Alizadeh, Z., Rezaei, S., Ghanbarian, M., Ghozikali, M. G., Osornio-Vargas, A. R. and Naddafi, K., 2019. Proinflammatory effects of dust storm and thermal inversion particulate matter (PM10) on human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) in vitro: a comparative approach and analysis, Journal of Environmental Health Science and Engineering, 17: 433-444.
  5. Belayneh, A. and Adamowski, J., 2012. Standard Precipitation Index Drought Forecasting Using Neural Networks, Wavelet Neural Networks, and Support Vector Regression, Applied Computational Intelligence and Soft Computing, 6: 794061.
  6. Bolles, K., Sweeney, M. and Forman, S., 2019. Meteorological catalysts of dust events and particle source dynamics of affected soils during the 1930s Dust Bowl drought, Southern High Plains, USA, Anthropocene, 27: 100216.
  7. Cao, H., Liu, J., Wang, G., Guang, Y. and Luo, L., 2015. Identification of sand and dust storm source areas in Iran, Journal of Arid Land volume, 7: 567–578.
  8. Capodici, F., Ciraolo, G., La Loggia, G., Liuzzo, L., Noto, L. and Noto, M., 2008. Time series analysis of climate and vegetation variables in the Oreto watershed, European Water, 23: 133-145.
  9. Chen, L., Chen, X., Cheng, L., Zhou, P. and Liu, Z., 2019. Compound hot droughts over China: Identification, risk patterns and variations, Atmospheric Research, 227: 210-219.
  10. Chen, W., Li, Z., Jiao, L., Wang, C., Gao, G. and Fu, B., 2020. Response of Soil Moisture to Rainfall Event in Black Locust Plantations at Different Stages of Restoration in Hilly-gully Area of the Loess Plateau, China, Chinese Geographical Science, 30: 427-445.
  11. Duniway, M. C., Pfennigwerth, A. A., Fick, S. E., Nauman, T. W., Belnap, J. and Barger, N. N., 2019. Wind erosion and dust from US drylands: a review of causes, consequences, and solutions in a changing world, Ecosphere, 10: e02650.
  12. Ebrahimi-Khusfi, Z., Taghizadeh-Mehrjardi, R. and Mirakbari, M., 2020. Evaluation of machine learning models for predicting the temporal variations of dust storm index in arid regions of Iran, Atmospheric Pollution Research.
  13. Ebrahimi Khusfi, Z., Roustaei, F., Ebrahimi Khusfi, M. and Naghavi, S., 2020. Investigation of the relationship between dust storm index, climatic parameters, and normalized difference vegetation index using the ridge regression method in arid regions of Central Iran, Arid Land Research and Management, 34: 239-263.
  14. Edwards, D. C. and McKee, T. B. 1997. Characteristics of 20th century drought in the United States at multiple time DTIC Document.
  15. Faraji, M., Pourpak, Z., Naddafi, K., Nodehi, R. N., Nicknam, M. H., Shamsipour, M., Osornio-Vargas, A. R., Hassanvand, M. S., Alizadeh, Z. and Rezaei, S., 2019. Chemical composition of PM 10 and its effect on in vitro hemolysis of human red blood cells (RBCs): a comparison study during dust storm and inversion, Journal of Environmental Health Science and Engineering, 17: 493-502.
  16. Gabbasova, I. M., Suleimanov, R. R., Khabirov, I. K., Komissarov, M. A., Fruehauf, M., Liebelt, P., Garipov, T. T., Sidorova, L. V. and Khaziev, F. K., 2016. Temporal changes of eroded soils depending on their agricultural use in the southern Cis-Ural region, Eurasian Soil Science, 49: 1204-1210.
  17. Gerivani, H., Lashkaripour, G. R., Ghafoori, M. and Jalali, , 2011. The source of dust storm in Iran: a case study based on geological information and rainfall data, Carpathian Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, 6.
  18. Guan, Q., Yang, J., Zhao, S., Pan, B., Liu, C., Zhang, D. and Wu, T., 2015. Climatological analysis of dust storms in the area surrounding the Tengger Desert during 1960–2007, Climate dynamics, 45: 903-913.
  19. Jalali, N. and Davoudi, M., 2008. Inspecting the originsand causes of the dust storms in the Southwest andWest parts of Iran and the regions affected, Internal reports of Soil Conservation and Watershed anagement Research Institute (SCWMRI), Iran.
  20. Jasim, A. I. and Awchi, T. A., 2020. Regional meteorological drought assessment in Iraq, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 13: 284.
  21. Jeanne, P., Farr, T. G., Rutqvist, J. and Vasco, D. W., 2019. Role of agricultural activity on land subsidence in the San Joaquin Valley, California, Journal of hydrology, 569: 462-469.
  22. Kangas, R. S. and Brown, T. J., 2007. Characteristics of US drought and pluvials from a high‐resolution spatial dataset, International Journal of Climatology, 27: 1303-1325.
  23. Karimzadeh, S. and Taghizadeh, M., 2019. Potential of dust emission resources using small wind tunnel and GIS: case study of Bakhtegan playa, Iran, Applied Water Science, 9.
  24. Lee, L. J. E., Lawrence, D. S. L. and Price, M., 2006. Analysis of water-level response to rainfall and implications for recharge pathways in the Chalk aquifer, SE England, Journal of Hydrology, 330: 604-620.
  25. Levy, Z. F., Fram, M. S., Faulkner, E., Alpers, C. N., Soltero, E. M. and Taylor, K. A., 2020. Effects of montane watershed development on vulnerability of domestic groundwater supply during drought, Journal of Hydrology, 583: 124567.
  26. Leys, J. F., Heidenreich, S. K., Strong, C. L., McTainsh, G. H. and Quigley, S., 2011. PM10 concentrations and mass transport during “Red Dawn”–Sydney 23 September 2009, Aeolian Research, 3: 327-342.
  27. Mahowald, N. M., Bryant, R. G., del Corral, J. and Steinberger, L., 2003. Ephemeral lakes and desert dust sources, Geophysical Research Letters, 30.
  28. Martin, J. T., Pederson, G. T., Woodhouse, C. A., Cook, E. R., McCabe, G. J., Anchukaitis, K. J., Wise, E. K., Erger, P. J., Dolan, L., McGuire, M., Gangopadhyay, S., Chase, K. J., Littell, J. S., Gray, S. T., St. George, S., Friedman, J. M., Sauchyn, D. J., St-Jacques, J.-M. and King, J., 2020. Increased drought severity tracks warming in the United States’ largest river basin, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117: 11328-11336.
  29. McCoy, K. J. and Blanchard, P. J. 2008. Precipitation, Ground-water Hydrology, and Recharge Along the Eastern Slopes of the Sandia Mountains, Bernalillo County, New Mexico. Scientific Investigations Report. Version 1.0 ed.
  30. McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J. and Kleist, J., The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 1993: American Meteorological Society Boston, MA, USA, 179-183.
  31. McTainsh, G. H., Burgess, R. and Pitblado, J. R., 1989. Aridity, drought and dust storms in Australia (1960–84), Journal of Arid Environments, 16: 11-22.
  32. Middleton, N., 2019. Variability and Trends in Dust Storm Frequency on Decadal Timescales: Climatic Drivers and Human Impacts, Geosciences, 9: 261.
  33. Mishra, A. and Desai, V., 2005. Drought forecasting using stochastic models, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 19: 326-339.
  34. Modarres, R. and Sadeghi, S., 2018. Spatial and temporal trends of dust storms across desert regions of Iran, Natural Hazards, 90: 101-114.
  35. Moradi Dashtpagerdi, M., Kousari, M. R., Vagharfard, H., Ghonchepour, D., Hosseini, M. E. and Ahani, H., 2014. An investigation of drought magnitude trend during 1975–2005 in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran, Environmental Earth Sciences, 73: 1231-1244.
  36. Naderizadeh, Z., Khademi, H. and Ayoubi, S., 2016. Biomonitoring of atmospheric heavy metals pollution using dust deposited on date palm leaves in southwestern Iran, Atmósfera, 29: 141-155.
  37. Nodej, T. M. and Rezazadeh, M., 2018. The spatial distribution of critical wind erosion centers according to the dust event in Hormozgan province (south of Iran), CATENA, 167: 340-352.
  38. O’Loingsigh, T., McTainsh, G. H., Tews, E. K., Strong, C. L., Leys, J. F., Shinkfield, P. and Tapper, N. J., 2014. The Dust Storm Index (DSI): A method for monitoring broadscale wind erosion using meteorological records, Aeolian Research, 12: 29-40.
  39. Paredes, F. J., 2016. A probabilistic model for the prediction of meteorological droughts in Venezuela, Atmósfera, 29: 311-323.
  40. Pu, B., Ginoux, P., Kapnick, S. B. and Yang, X., 2019. Seasonal Prediction Potential for Springtime Dustiness in the United States, Geophysical Research Letters, 46: 9163-9173.
  41. Rashki, A., Arjmand, M. and Kaskaoutis, D., 2017. Assessment of dust activity and dust-plume pathways over Jazmurian Basin, southeast Iran, Aeolian Research, 24: 145-160.
  42. Roozitalab, M. H., Siadat, H. and Farshad, A. 2018. The soils of Iran, Springer.
  43. Şahin, Ü. A., Onat, B. and Ayvaz, C. 2019. Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases in Turkey. Recycling and Reuse Approaches for Better Sustainability. Springer.
  44. Sardar Shahraki, A., Shahraki, J. and Hashemi Monfared, S. A., 2020. An integrated model for economic assessment of environmental scenarios for dust stabilization and sustainable flora–fauna ecosystem in international Hamoun wetland, Environment, Development and Sustainability.
  45. Segovia, C., Gómez, J. D., Gallardo, P., Lozano, F. J. and Asensio, C., 2017. Soil nutrients losses by wind erosion in a citrus crop at southeast Spain, Eurasian Soil Science, 50: 756-763.
  46. Shen, H. O., Wang, D. L., Wen, L. L., Zhao, W. T. and Zhang, Y., 2020. Soil Erosion and Typical Soil and Water Conservation Measures on Hillslopes in the Chinese Mollisol Region, Eurasian Soil Science, 53: 1509-1519.
  47. Sofue, Y., Hoshino, B., Demura, Y., Kai, K., Baba, K., Nduati, E., Kondoh, A. and Sternberg, T., 2018. Satellite Monitoring of Vegetation Response to Precipitation and Dust Storm Outbreaks in Gobi Desert Regions, Land, 7: 19.
  48. Tegen, I. and Schepanski, K., 2018. Climate Feedback on Aerosol Emission and Atmospheric Concentrations, Current Climate Change Reports, 4: 1-10.
  49. Uddin, M. J., Hu, J., Islam, A. R. M. T., Eibek, K. U. and Nasrin, Z. M., 2020. A comprehensive statistical assessment of drought indices to monitor drought status in Bangladesh, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 13: 323.
  50. Voss, K. and Evan, A., 2019. A New Satellite-Based Global Climatology of Dust Aerosol Optical Depth, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 59.
  51. Wang, J., Rich, P. and Price, , 2003. Temporal responses of NDVI to precipitation and temperature in the central Great Plains, USA, International Journal of Remote Sensing, 24: 2345-2364.
  52. Wang, Q., Liu, Y.-y., Zhang, Y.-z., Tong, L.-j., Li, X., Li, J.-l. and Sun, Z., 2019. Assessment of Spatial Agglomeration of Agricultural Drought Disaster in china from 1978 to 2016, Scientific reports, 9: 1-8.
  53. Wang, X., Hua, T. and Che, H., 2020. Temporal variation of dust aerosol pollution in northern China, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 13: 108.
  54. Xian, P., Klotzbach, P. J., Dunion, J. P., Janiga, M. A., Reid, J. S., Colarco, P. R. and Kipling, Z., 2020. Revisiting the Relationship between Atlantic Dust and Tropical Cyclone Activity using Aerosol Optical Depth Reanalyses: 2003-2018, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 2020: 1-43.
  55. Yarmoradi, Z., Nasiri, B., Karampour, M. and Mohammadi, G. H., 2018. Trend analysis of dusty days frequency in Eastern parts of Iran associated with Climate Fluctuations, Desert Ecosystem Engineering Journal, 7: 1-14.
  56. Yarmoradi, Z., Nasiri, B., Mohammadi, G. H. and Karampour, M., 2020. Long-term characteristics of the observed dusty days and its relationship with climatic parameters in East Iran, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 13: 242.
  57. Zender, C. S. and Kwon, E. Y., 2005. Regional contrasts in dust emission responses to climate, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 110: D13201.