Evaluation of Change in Bioclimatic Indices in South of Iran Under Climate Change Conditions

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

Faculty of Payamenoor, Aranbidgol, Iran

چکیده

In recent years, the issue of climate change especially its impacts investigate by use of world bioclimatic classification systems (WBCS) that are coupled with climate change models.The Rivas Martinez classification that is a hierarchical method, uses a set of climate variables and biochemical index, it has its own subgroups.; macrobioclimatology, bioclimate, thermotype and ambrotype. Indicators used in this method are: simple continentality index, annual ambrothermic index, thermal index and compensated thermicity index. In order to evaluate the change in bioclimatic index of the Martinez method under climate change conditions in south of Iran, we used the output data of the HadGEM2.ES model as one of the CMIP5 models with appropriate spatial resolution and the two scenarios RCP8.5 & RCP4.5 The strength of model is determined based on the weight gain method. The results of this study indicate that, generally, under the implementation of pessimistic and optimistic scenarios, the rate of ambrothermic decreases, which means that the environmental conditions become drier. The thermal index, which evaluates the cold intensity during the cold period, as a limiting factor for the growth and development of plant communities will increase. The core of increase of this indicator is relatively large and has an extension to the west of the provinces of Hormozgan, south of Fars and west of Kerman province. Also, the output of the model indicates that a decrease of continentality index for the future period. The reason for this decrease is due to an unbalanced temperature increase during the warm and cold seasons. The implementation of global climate change models also confirms this. The yearly positive temperature shows decreasing trend due to the transfer of periods that will experience a zero temperature threshold under the warming conditions.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of Change in Bioclimatic Indices in South of Iran Under Climate Change Conditions

نویسنده [English]

  • Akbar Ahaemi
Faculty of Payamenoor, Aranbidgol, Iran
چکیده [English]

In recent years, the issue of climate change especially its impacts investigate by use of world bioclimatic classification systems (WBCS) that are coupled with climate change models.The Rivas Martinez classification that is a hierarchical method, uses a set of climate variables and biochemical index, it has its own subgroups.; macrobioclimatology, bioclimate, thermotype and ambrotype. Indicators used in this method are: simple continentality index, annual ambrothermic index, thermal index and compensated thermicity index. In order to evaluate the change in bioclimatic index of the Martinez method under climate change conditions in south of Iran, we used the output data of the HadGEM2.ES model as one of the CMIP5 models with appropriate spatial resolution and the two scenarios RCP8.5 & RCP4.5 The strength of model is determined based on the weight gain method. The results of this study indicate that, generally, under the implementation of pessimistic and optimistic scenarios, the rate of ambrothermic decreases, which means that the environmental conditions become drier. The thermal index, which evaluates the cold intensity during the cold period, as a limiting factor for the growth and development of plant communities will increase. The core of increase of this indicator is relatively large and has an extension to the west of the provinces of Hormozgan, south of Fars and west of Kerman province. Also, the output of the model indicates that a decrease of continentality index for the future period. The reason for this decrease is due to an unbalanced temperature increase during the warm and cold seasons. The implementation of global climate change models also confirms this. The yearly positive temperature shows decreasing trend due to the transfer of periods that will experience a zero temperature threshold under the warming conditions.

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