ارزیابی اثر خشکسالی بر منابع آب زیرزمینی با استفاده از شاخص SPI (مطالعۀ موردی: دشت شهربابک، استان کرمان)

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

2 دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

3 دانشگاه زابل

چکیده

بررسی تغییرات منابع آب زیرزمینی در برنامه‌ریزی و مدیریت پایدار منابع آب هر منطقه اهمیت فراوانی دارد و مدیریت علمی آن نیازمند دانستن رابطۀ آن با خشکسالی است. در این پژوهش متغیرهای تبخیر، دما، بارندگی از داده‌های اقلیمی و از داده‌های هیدرولوژیکی دبی و همچنین داده‌های عمق آب زیرزمینی 50 حلقه چاه مشاهده‌ای در دشت شهربابک واقع در غرب استان کرمان طی دورۀ آماری 94-1371 استفاده شد. ابتدا شاخص SPI، طولانی‌ترین دوره و تعداد سال‌های مواجهه با خشکسالی محاسبه شدند. سپس با استفاده از آزمون ناپارامتری من ـ کندال روند تغییرات شاخص SPI، تبخیر، دبی و عمق آب زیرزمینی مشخص شدند. نتایج نشان داد که در اکثر ایستگاه‌ها در طول 33 سال اخیر، روندهای عمق آب زیرزمینی، تبخیر، دبی و شاخص خشکسالی کاهشی است. سپس رابطۀ همبستگی بین عمق آب زیرزمینی، شاخص SPI، تبخیر و دما بررسی شد و نتایج نشان‌دهندۀ عدم وجود رابطۀ همبستگی معنی‌داری بین متغیرهای اقلیمی تبخیر و دما با عمق آب زیرزمینی و وجود همبستگی بین عمق آب زیرزمینی (متغیر وابسته) و شاخص SPI (متغیر مستقل) در مقیاس 48 ماهه بود که بیشترین ضرایب همبستگی و تبیین به ترتیب برابر با 0/439 و 0/51 در سطح معنی‌داری 99 درصد به‌دست آمد. معنی‌دار بودن این رابطه حاکی از تأثیر مستقیم خشکسالی بر سطح آب زیرزمینی در این دشت است. تغییرات عمق آب زیرزمینی در ارتباط با شدت و طول دورۀ خشکسالی و همچنین روند منفی نشان می‌دهد که هر شش ایستگاه مورد بررسی با خشکسالی مواجه‌اند. از بین معیارهای مورد توجه در این شاخص، معیار طول دورۀ خشکسالی، معیار مناسبی جهت نشان دادن وضعیت خشکسالی در منطقه تشخیص داده شد و مشخص گردید که علاوه بر برداشت بیش از حد مجاز از آبخوان، خشکسالی طولانی‌مدت اثر مخرب‌تری نسبت به دوره‌های کوتاه‌تر خشکسالی در افت سطح آب زیرزمینی دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of Drought Impact on Groundwater Resources Using SPI Index (Case study: Shahr-e-Babak Plain, Kerman Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Afshin Jahanshahi 1
  • Alireza Moghaddam Nia 2
  • Mohammad Nohtani 3
1
2
3
چکیده [English]

Investigation of changes in groundwater resources is of great importance in planning and sustainable management of water resources. Knowledge on the relationship between groundwater and drought is prerequisite for water resources management. In this study, climatic variables including evaporation, temperature, precipitation as well as hydrological variables i.e. discharge and groundwater depth from 50 piezometric wells were used for the period of 1992-2015 in the Shar-e-Babak plain, west of Kerman province. The SPI index, the longest period of drought and the number of years faced drought were calculated at first step. Then, trend of SPI index variation, evaporation, discharge and groundwater depth were determined using Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test. Correlation coefficient was also investigated between groundwater depth, SPI index, evaporation and temperature. Results showed that trends of groundwater depth, evaporation, discharge and drought index were decreasing in most stations during the past 33 years.  Evaporation and temperature were not significantly correlated with groundwater depth, but there was a positive correlation between groundwater depth (dependent variable) and SPI index (independent variable) on the scale of 48 months. The highest correlation and regression coefficients were 0.439 and 0.51, respectively, at 99% significance level indicating direct effect of drought on groundwater level in Shahr-e-Babak plain. Changes in groundwater depth in association with drought severity and duration as well as decreasing trend indicate that all six stations were facing drought. Among the criteria in SPI index, drought duration was recognized as an appropriate criterion for indicating drought conditions in the study area. It was found that in addition to excessive use of groundwater, prolonged drought periods has more destructive effect than shorter periods on drop of groundwater level.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Drought
  • Groundwater
  • Mann-Kendall
  • Shar-e-Babak Plain
  • SPI Index
1. Agnew C.T., Chappell, A., 1999. Drought in the Sahel. GeoJournal, Vol. 48, No. 4, 299-311. 2. Alizadeh, A., 2012. Principles of applied Hydrology, 35th edition. Ferdowsi University press. 927 pp. 3. Anonymous,. 2011. Report of ShahrBabak groundwater resources. Kerman Regional Water Authority, Department of Water Resources Research Studies. Iran 4. Anonymous,. 2015. Report of ShahrBabak groundwater resources. Kerman Regional Water Authority, Department of Water Resources Research Studies. Iran 5. Asgari, A., Rahimzadeh, F., 2006. Study of Iran recently rainfall variability. Journal of Geographical Research 58, 67-80. 6. Bloomfield J. P., Marchant B. P., 2013. Analysis of groundwater drought building on the standardised precipitation index approach. Journal of Hydrology and Earth System Science, 17, 4769-4787. 7- Callow R., Robins, N., Mcdonald, A., Nicol, A., 1999. Planning for groundwater drought in Africa. In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Integrated Drought Management: Lesson for Sub-Saharan Africa. IHP-V, Technical Documents in Hydrology, 35: 255-270. 8. Correia F.N., Santos, M.A., Rodrigues, R.R., 1986. Risk, resilience and Vulnerability in Regional Drought Studies, In Valadares Tavares L, Evaristo Da Silva J (eds) system Analysis Applied to Water and Related Land Resources. Proceeding of the IFAC Conference, Lisbon, Portugal, October 2-4 October. 9. Dinpazhoh Y., Mirabbasi, R., Jhajharia, D., Abianeh, H., Mostafaeipour, A., 2014. Effect of Short Term and Long-Term Persistence on Identification of Temporal Trends. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(3): 617-625. 10. Edossa F., Kassahum, T., Endashaw, B., 2010. A comparative study of morphological and molecular diversuty in the Ethiopian lentil landraces. African Journal of Plant Science 7(4): 241-254. 11. Edwards D. C., McKee, T. B., 1997. Characteristics of 20th Century in the United States at multiple time scales. Climatology Report Number 97-2, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado. 12. Golian S., Mazdiyasni, O., Aghakouchak, A., 2015. Trends in meterological and agricultural droughts in Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Volume 119, Issue 3, 679-688. 13. Golkarhamzei Yazd, H. R., Kaveh, F., Ghahreman, B., Sedghi, H., 2008. Investigation of changn trend of evapotranspiration reference plant monthly time series using FAO Penman montieth suggested method. Special Agricultural Sciences, 13(2), 417-433. 14. Golmohammadi, M., Massah Bavani, A., 2011. The Perusal Climate Change Impact on Drought Intensity and Duration. Journal of Water and Soil 25(2): 315-326. 15. Hayes M. J., Svoboda, M. D., Wihite, D. A., Vanyarkho, O. V., 1999. Monitoring the 1996 drought using the standardized precipitation index. Bulletin of the American Meterological Society, 80(3): 429-438. 16. Hayes M., 2003. Drought Indicates, National Drought Mitigation Center. 1-11. 17. Irannejad, P., Katiraei Boroujerdi, P. S., Hejam, S., 2008. The share of daily rainfall frequency and intensity changes in the trend of rainfall in Iran over the period 1960 to 2001. Journal of Earth and Space Physics. 33(1): 67-83. 18. Jahanshahi, A., 2013. Spatial variability analysis of groundwater quality and quantity in ShahrBabak plain using geostatistic and GIS. M.Sc. thesis, University of Zabol. 147 pp. 19. Jahanshahi, A., Rouhi Moghaddam, E., Dehvari, A., 2014. Investigation groundwater quality parameters using GIS and geostatistics (Case study: ShahrBabak plain aquifer). Journal of water and soil science 24(3): 183-197 20. Karami, F., Bayati Khatibi, M., 2009. Effect of drought on water resources dropping in Sarab plain. Final report of the research project, University of Tabriz, Iran. 21. Kazemzadeh, M., Malekian, A., 2015. Spatial characteristics and temporal trends of meterological and hydrological droughts in northwestern Iran. Natural Hazards. Volume 80, Issue 1, 191-210. 22. Khan S., Gabriel, H.F., Rana, T., 2008. Standard Precipitation index to track drought and assess impact of rainfall on water tables on irrigation areas. Irrigation Drainage System. 22: 159-177. 23. Khoshhal, J., Ghayoor, H. A., Moradi, M., 2013. A Surveying the Impact of Groundwater Drought in Dehgolan Basin, Kurdistan Province. Journal of Natural Geography Researches 79, 19-36. 24. Khosravi, M., Movaghari, A., Mansouridanesh, M. R., 2013. Evaluation of PNI, RAI, SIP and SPI index for the zoning of drought severity by comparing the two methods of IDW interpolation and Digital Elevation Model DEM. Journal of Geography and Environmental Sustainability 5, 53-70. 25. Komsucu, A. U., 1999. Using the SPI to analysis spatial and temporal patterns of drought in Turkey. Drought Network News 11(1): 7-13. 26. Loukas A., Vasiliades, L., 2004. Probabilistic analysis of drought spatiotemporal characteristics in Thessaly region, Greece. Natural Hazarda and Earth SystemScience 4, 719-931. 27. McKee T B., Doeksen, N. J., Kleist, J., 1995. Drought monitoring with multiple time scales. 9th Conferences on Applied Climatology, American Meterological Society, Jan 15-20, 1995, Dallas TX, 233-236. 28. McKee T.B., Nolan, J.D., Kleist, J., 1993. The relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration on Time Scales, The eighth Conference on “Applied Climatology Department of Atmospheric Science”, Colorado State University Fort Collins, January 17-22. 29. Mendicino G., Alfonso, S., Pasquale, V., 2008. A groundwater Resources Index (GRI) for drought monitoring and forecasting in a Mediterranean climate, Journal of Hydrology, Vol 357 N: 3: 282-302. 30. Mirabbasi R., Fakheri-Fard, A., Dinpajouh, Y., 2012. Bivariate drought frequency analysis using copula method, Theorical and Applied Climatology 108, 191-206. 31. Mohseni Saravi, M., Safdari, A. A., Saghafian, B., Mahdavi, M., 2004. Analysis of intensity, duration, frequency and drought extent using rainfall data (case study: Karoun catchment). Journal of Iran Natural Resources, 57(4): 607-620. 32. Moradi, H. R., Rajabi, M., Farajzadeh, M., 2007. Analysis trend and spatial characteristics of droughts intensity in Fars province. Iranian Journal of Range Desert research 14(1): 97-109. 33. Morid S, Smakhtin V., Moghaddasi, M., 2006. Comparison of Seven Meterological Indices for Drought Monitoring in Iran. International Journal of Climatology 26: 971-985. 34. Nazemosadat, S.M.J., Samani, N., Molaeinikou, M., 2004. Climate change in the south and sout west of Iran from the perspective of rainfall observation, Interaction with southern phenomenon oscillation of El Nino, Journal of Agriculture 28(2): 81-97. 35. Partal T., Kahaya, E., 2006. Trends in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrol Process 20: 2011-2026. 36. Rodrigues da silva VP., 2004. On climate variability in northeast of Brazil. J Arid Environments 58: 575-596. 37. Saeedinia, M., Samadi borojeni, H., Maleki, A., Izadi, A., 2011. Evaluation of Drought Effect on the Groundwater Resources and Agricultural Development in the Behesht Abad Basin Using WEAP Model. Journal of Water and Soil Conservation 18(3): 17-36. 38. Scheidleder A., Grath, J., Winkler, G., Stark, U., Koreimann, C., Gmeiner, C., 1999. Ground water quality and quantity in Europe. European Environment Agency, pp. 123. 39. Seif, M., Mosaedi, A., Mohammadzadeh, H., 1994. "Evaluate the effect of drought on groundwater resources drop (case study: aquifer of Fasa plain) ". 15th Congress of the Geological Society of Iran. Iran. 40. Shakiba, A., Mirbagheri, B., Kheiri, A., 2010. Drought and its impact on groundwater resources in the east of Kermanshah province. Journal of Geography (Geographic Society's Journal) 25, 105-124. 41. Shiau JT., 2006. Fitting drought duration and severity with two-dimentional copulas. Water Resources Management 20, 795-815. 42. Shiau JT., Modarres, R., 2009. Copula-based drought severity-duration-frequency analysis in Iran. Meteorological Applications 16: 481–489. 43. Soltani, F., 2009. "Quantitative and qualitative changes of Baghmalek plain groundwater due to drought and evaluate the rate of change in watery volume". 2th National Conference on drought and its management solutions. Iran. 44. Tabari H., Nikbakht, J., Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P., 2012. Hydrological Drought Assessment in Northwestern Iran Based on Streamflow Drought Index (SDI). Water Resources Management, Volume 27, Issue 1, 137-151. 45. Vasiliades L., Loukas, A., Liberis, N., 2010. A water derived drought index for pinios River Basin, Greece. Water Resources Management 25(4): 1087-1101. 46. Wilhite D A., Glantz, M H., 1985. Understanding the drought phenomenon: The role of definitions. University of Nebraska-Lincoln 10: 111-120. 47. Yamoh C. F., Varvel, G. E., Francis, C. A., Waltman, W J., 1998. Weather and management impact on crop yield variability, Journal of production agriculture 11(2): 219-225. 48. Zakerinejad, R., Masoudi, M., Afzali, F., Falah, R., 2013. Assessment of Desertification using groundwater criteria and GIS (Case study: Zarin Dasht Fars). 7, 1-10. 49. Zare Abyaneh, H., Bayat Varkeshi, M., Dinpajouh, Y., 2012. Investigation of changing trend of drought index in the southern half of the country, Journal of Water and Soil Science 21(2): 81-92.