مقایسۀ اثر سناریوهای تغییر ‌اقلیم بر شدت خطر و ریسک بیابان‌زایی حوضۀ حبله‌رود، استان تهران

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان

2 دانشگاه تهران

10.22052/6.16.105

چکیده

تغییر اقلیم، خشکسالی و تغییر کاربری اراضی، پیامدهای منفی ازجمله گسترش بیابان‌ها را به‌دنبال دارد. بیابان‌زایی به مفهوم تخریب سرزمین، سومین چالش مهم جهانی قرن 21 محسوب می‌شود. در این تحقیق، تلاش شده که تأثیر پدیدۀ تغییر اقلیم بر تغییرات برخی از متغیرهای اقلیمی (دما و بارش) ایستگاه‌های سینوپتیک فیروزکوه و گرمسار در دو دورۀ آیندۀ نزدیک (20۱۱ـ20۳۰) و آیندۀ میانه (20۴۶ـ20۶۵) با کاربرد مدلLARS-WG و سناریوهای A2، B2 و A1B و نیز شدت خطر و ریسک بیابان‌زایی با کاربرد مدل ESAs در حوضۀ حبله‌رود، باتوجه‌به حساسیت اکولوژیکی و موقعیت خاص سیاسی این منطقه بررسی شود. نتایج نشان داد بارش ماهانۀ حوضه، به‌طور متوسط در آیندۀ نزدیک، بین 23/0 تا 80/4 میلی‌متر افزایش و در آیندۀ میانه 08/0 تا 15/0 میلی‌متر کاهش خواهد یافت و حداقل و حداکثر دما برای هر دو دورۀ آینده افزایش خواهد یافت. بیشترین تغییرات کلاس‌های بیابان‌زایی در دورۀ آیندۀ نزدیک، مربوط به سناریوی B1 و در آیندۀ میانه، مربوط به سناریوی A1B بوده که طی آن، شاهد گذار و تغییر کلاس‌های خطر F2، F3 و C1 به کلاس‌های بحرانی‌تر C3 و C4 خواهیم بود. همچنین در هر دو دورۀ‌ آینده، درصد مساحت کلاس‌های ریسک IV و V (بحرانی) افزایش خواهد یافت؛ به‌طوری‌که این مقدار افزایش برای آیندۀ میانه، از 49/15 درصد برای سناریوی B1 و کلاس IV تا 77/50 درصد در سناریوی A2 کلاس V خواهد بود.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Comparison of climate change scenarios on the desertification hazard intensity and risk of Hablehroud basin, Tehran province

نویسندگان [English]

  • navid ziaee 1
  • Majid Ownegh 1
  • Hamid Reza Asgari 1
  • Ali Reza Massah Bavani 2
  • Abdol Rasoul Salman mahini 1
  • Mohsen Hosseinalizadeh 1
1
2
چکیده [English]

Climate change and drought have negative consequences, including the spread of deserts. In this research, the impact of climate change on some climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) of Firoozkooh and Garmsar synoptic stations in the period 2030-2011 and 2065-2046 using LARS-WG model under scenario A2, B2 and A1B and finally desertification hazard and risk using ESAs model in Hablehroud basin due to ecological sensitivity of this area were assessed. The results revealed that the precipitation in the near future will increase from 0.23 to 4.80 mm and in the middle future will decrease from 0.80 to 0.15 mm. The minimum and maximum temperatures will increase for both future periods. Most changes in desertification classes in the near future are related to scenario B1 and scenario A1B in the middle future, in which we can consider transition and change of hazard classes (F2, F3 and C1) to the critical classes (C3 and C4). In both future periods, the percentage of the risk classes area of IV and V (critical) will increase. Therefore, this increase for the middle future will be from 15.49% for scenario B1 and class IV up to 77.50% for scenario A2 and class V.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Desertification
  • Global Warming
  • Hablehroud
  • HadCM3 Model
  • LARS-WG
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