ارزیابی و پهنه‌بندی ریسک خشک‌سالی با استفاده از شاخص بارش استاندارد (SPI) (مطالعۀ موردی حوضۀ کرخه)

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی پردیس ابوریحان دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشگاه تربت حیدریه

10.22052/6.15.87

چکیده

پایش خشک‌سالی یکی از عوامل مهم و کلیدی در مدیریت ریسک خشک‌سالی است و کاربرد نمایه‌های خشک‌سالی ازجمله شاخص بارش استاندارد (SPI) ابزار مفیدی در این راستا می‌باشند. هدف این تحقیق، ارزیابی و پهنه‌بندی ریسک خشک‌سالی‌ها در سال‌ها و دورۀ بازگشت‌های مختلف در حوضۀ کرخه است. به ‌این منظور شاخص بارش استاندارد (SPI) به‌عنوان شاخص منتخب برای بررسی خشک‌سالی‌ها در 33 ایستگاه داخل و خارج حوضه در پنج مقیاس زمانی مورداستفاده قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که کمترین مقدار SPI مربوط به ایستگاه گوار کرمانشاه، شدید‌ترین تداوم از نظر بزرگی خشک‌سالی‌ها متعلق به ایستگاه بیدرود خوزستان و طولانی‌ترین تداوم مربوط به ایستگاه جوکار همدان بوده است. نقشه‌های گسترۀ ریسک خشک‌سالی برای دورۀ بازگشت‌های متفاوت نشان داد که در دورۀ بازگشت پنج‌ساله، نواحی شمال (ایستگاه بوانه استان کردستان)، شمال ‌شرقی (استان همدان) و شمال ‌غربی (استان کرمانشاه) حوضه از نظر خطر ریسک خشک‌سالی مستعدترند. این وضعیت برای دورۀ بازگشت ده‌ساله بیشتر شامل نواحی شمالی (ایستگاه بوانه استان کردستان)، شمال‌ غربی (استان کرمانشاه) و مرکزی (شمال استان خوزستان) حوضه می‌شود. استعداد خطر خشک‌سالی برای دورۀ بازگشت بیست‌ساله، بیشتر نواحی شمالی (ایستگاه بوانه استان کردستان) و شمال‌ غربی (استان کرمانشاه) را تحت تأثیر قرار داده است، درحالی‌که برای دورۀ بازگشت پنجاه‌ساله، علاوه‌بر نواحی شمالی (ایستگاه بوانه استان کردستان) و شمال‌ غربی (استان کرمانشاه)، نواحی شمال‌ شرقی (استان همدان) نیز در معرض خطر خشک‌سالی قرار گرفته است. نتیجۀ کلی نشان می‌دهد که نواحی پیرامونی حوضه، مخصوصاً نواحی شمال ‌غربی، شمالی، شمال‌ شرقی و بخش‌های کمی از نواحی شرقی و جنوب‌ شرقی، مستعدترین مناطق تحت تأثیر خشک‌سالی هستند و با افزایش دوره‌های بازگشت، از میزان شدت ریسک خشک‌سالی کاسته می‌شود.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Drought Risk Assessment and Zoning Using The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (Case Study: Karkheh Basin)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammadhadi nazarifar 1
  • amir salari 2
1
2
چکیده [English]

Drought monitoring is one of the key factors in drought risk management and the use of drought indices such as the standardized precipitation index (SPI) is a useful tool in this regard. The aim of this study is to evaluate and zone drought risk in different years and return periods in Karkheh basin. For this purpose, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as a selected index was used to assess drought in 33 stations inside and outside the basin in five timescales. The results showed that the lowest values of SPI, the most severe drought continuity of the large and the longest continuity were related to Govar stations of Kermanshah province, Biderood station of Khoozestan province and Jokar station in Hamadan province, respectively. Extensive drought risk maps for different return periods showed that in return period of 5 years, northern (Bavane station of Kurdistan province), northeast (Hamadan station) and northwest (Kermanshah) areas were more at risk of drought. This condition for a return period of 10 years was mostly related to northern (Bavane station of Kurdistan province), northwest (Kermanshah) and central areas. Drought risk for 20-year return period affected the northern (Bavane station of Kurdistan province) and Northwest (Kermanshah) areas more, while for 50-year return period, in addition to northern (Bavane station of Kurdistan province) and northwest (Kermanshah), it also affected the northeast (Hamadan station). The overall result showed that the periphery areas, especially areas of northwest, north, northeast and some parts of eastern and southeastern areas are the most susceptible areas affected by drought and with increase in the return period, the severity of drought risk can be reduced.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Drought
  • Standardized Precipitation Index
  • Karkheh
  • Risk management
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