بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر منابع آب زیرزمینی دشت اسلام‌آباد و بهینه‌سازی تخصیص سطح اراضی آن

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

در مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک، نیازهای آبی بخش‌های مختلف به منابع آب زیرزمینی وابسته بوده، ازاین‌رو بررسی تغییرات آن در دوره‌های آتی در توسعۀ پایدار و مدیریت بهینۀ آبخوان‌ها حائز اهمیت است. هدف از پژوهش حاضر، ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر آبخوان دشت اسلام‌آباد غرب است. به این منظور، از خروجی مدل‌های گردش عمومی جو استفاده شد. به‌منظور تولید داده‌های هواشناسی دورۀ آتی در منطقه، مدل LARS-WG مورد واسنجی قرار گرفت و سپس خروجی‌های مدل HADCM3 برای دورۀ 2030-2011 در ایستگاه سینوپتیک اسلام‌آباد با استفاده از مدل LARS-WG کوچک مقیاس شد و سناریوی A2 در دورۀ زمانی 2030-2011 مبنای تحلیل اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر منابع آب زیرزمینی منطقه قرار گرفت. سپس بهینه‌سازی این منابع با استفاده از نرم‌افزار LINGO و به روش برنامه‌ریزی خطی صورت گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که متغیرهای بارش، دمای بیشینه و کمینه و ساعات آفتابی در شرایط تغییر اقلیم به‌ترتیب 31/04، 2/2، 13/66 و 0/4 درصد تغییر می‌کنند. این شرایط بر نیاز آبی و حجم آبِ در دسترس تأثیر گذاشته و سود حاصل از بهینه‌سازی محصولات کشاورزی در شرایط تغییر اقلیم نسبت به وضعیت کنونی 3/9 درصد کاهش یافته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Islam Abad Aquifer and Land Allocation Optimization

نویسندگان [English]

  • khalil jallili 1
  • hamidreza moradi 1
  • omid bozorg haddad 2
1
2
چکیده [English]

In arid and semiarid regions, water demands of different sectors are related to groundwater resources. Therefore, the assessment of its changes is very important to achieve sustainable development and optimal management of aquifers in the future periods. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate change on Islamabad aquifer. For this purpose, the output of general circulation climate models was used. For the generation of future weather data in the region, LARS-WG model was calibrated using meteorological data and then, HADCM3 model was applied and its results was downscaled using LARS-WG model in Islam Abad synoptic station for period of 2011 to 2030. The impacts of climate change on groundwater resources were analyzed based on A2 scenario in the period of 2011 to 2030. Then, optimization of these resources was done using LINGO software. Results of LARS-WG model indicated that the monthly rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures and radiation will change to 2.04, 2.31, 13.66 and 0.4 %, respectively, compared to the baseline period. These conditions affect water demand and available water volume. Moreover, the benefits of optimizing agricultural production in terms of climate change to the current situation dropped to 3.9%.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Desertification
  • Climate change
  • LARS-WG
  • LINGO
  • Islam Abad
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