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Climate change and its consequences are one of the biggest challenges of the 21st century, especially in arid areas, which are always faced with dehydration and extreme heat. Accordingly, the occurrence of climate change with the characteristics of reducing precipitation, increasing temperature and increasing the occurrence of serious climate impacts in the future, the characteristics of communities and constraints can have harmful consequences. The occurrence of such an issue was a fundamental problem. In the present study, in order to estimate the temperature and precipitation trend of future periods, the CanESM2 model under three scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and a SDSM downscaling model for downscaling of output data were used in Kermanshah region as a semi-arid area. Evaluation of model performance in the prediction climatic variables based on assessment indicators in the 2005-1961 shows low to high performance of the model in estimating the precipitation variable (R2=0.39 ،RMSE=4.74 ،Ns=-0.23) and the high performance of the model in the estimating of temperature variable(R2=0.98 ،RMSE=2.42 ،Ns=0.93). Based on the results of this study, precipitation in the period 2020-2049 compared to the RCP4.5 scenarios has increasing trend while under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios has a decreasing trend. Meanwhile, precipitation in the period 2050-2069 compared to the observation period under the scenario RCP2.6 has reduced and compared with two other scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 has increased. Also, precipitation in the period 2070-2099 compared to the observation period and period 2069-2050 revealed a decreasing trend. The results also proved that the temperature in the studied station in the period 2049-2020, 2050-2069, and 2070-2099 compared with the base period of 1961-2005 would show an incremental trend.
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Climate change
Received: 2019/09/28 | Accepted: 2020/10/9