University of KashanDesert Ecosystem Engineering2538-6336155120260823Assessment of Climate Variables under CMIP6 Future Climate Scenarios in a Semi-Arid Region of Northwestern IranAssessment of Climate Variables under CMIP6 Future Climate Scenarios in a Semi-Arid Region of Northwestern Iran11711562310.22052/deej.2026.258580.1140FARaoofMostafazadehDepartment of Natural Resources, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Member of Water Management Research Center, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, IranAliNasiri KhiaviArdabil Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Ardabil, IranShahnazMirzaeiDepartment of Watershed Management, Faculty of Range and Watershed Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, IranJournal Article20260430Climate change, largely driven by anthropogenic activities, has intensified the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including floods, droughts, hailstorms, heatwaves, and anomalous cold spells. This study evaluates the performance of three CMIP6 models (ACCESS-CM2, MIROC6, and NESM3) in simulating daily precipitation and temperature for the flood-prone Gharesou watershed in Ardabil, Iran. The models were validated against observed data from 1984–2014 using statistical metrics, including Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), and the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). Following validation, future projections were downscaled and bias-corrected under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 scenarios using the delta change method. Based on the superior performance in PBIAS and NSE metrics across all stations—with minor exceptions in specific precipitation and maximum temperature parameters at the Ardabil and Namin stations—the ACCESS-CM2 model was selected for long-term projections. The results indicate a general downward trend in monthly precipitation, with localized exceptions during the June–August period in Ardabil, March–August at the Airport station, and July in Namin and Nir. A comparative analysis between observed and projected mean annual precipitation under the SSP1-2.6 scenario reveals site-specific variations: declines of 31.07 mm, 37.60 mm, and 116.69 mm at the Ardabil, Namin, and Nir stations, respectively, alongside a marginal increase of 1.44 mm at the Ardabil airport station. Furthermore, all scenarios project a consistent rise in mean annual maximum and minimum temperatures. Specifically, the projected increase in maximum temperature ranges from 1.2 °C (SSP2-4.5, Ardabil) to 2.05 °C (SSP1-2.6, Namin), while minimum temperatures are expected to rise by 3.65 °C (SSP2-4.5, Namin) to 7.75 °C (SSP1-2.6, Ardabil airport). These forecasts, characterized by decreasing precipitation and significant warming, underscore the likelihood of imminent climate-driven extremes. Consequently, these findings provide a critical foundation for water resource managers to develop targeted risk mitigation strategies and enhance environmental and hydrological resilience in the region.Climate change, largely driven by anthropogenic activities, has intensified the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including floods, droughts, hailstorms, heatwaves, and anomalous cold spells. This study evaluates the performance of three CMIP6 models (ACCESS-CM2, MIROC6, and NESM3) in simulating daily precipitation and temperature for the flood-prone Gharesou watershed in Ardabil, Iran. The models were validated against observed data from 1984–2014 using statistical metrics, including Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), and the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). Following validation, future projections were downscaled and bias-corrected under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 scenarios using the delta change method. Based on the superior performance in PBIAS and NSE metrics across all stations—with minor exceptions in specific precipitation and maximum temperature parameters at the Ardabil and Namin stations—the ACCESS-CM2 model was selected for long-term projections. The results indicate a general downward trend in monthly precipitation, with localized exceptions during the June–August period in Ardabil, March–August at the Airport station, and July in Namin and Nir. A comparative analysis between observed and projected mean annual precipitation under the SSP1-2.6 scenario reveals site-specific variations: declines of 31.07 mm, 37.60 mm, and 116.69 mm at the Ardabil, Namin, and Nir stations, respectively, alongside a marginal increase of 1.44 mm at the Ardabil airport station. Furthermore, all scenarios project a consistent rise in mean annual maximum and minimum temperatures. Specifically, the projected increase in maximum temperature ranges from 1.2 °C (SSP2-4.5, Ardabil) to 2.05 °C (SSP1-2.6, Namin), while minimum temperatures are expected to rise by 3.65 °C (SSP2-4.5, Namin) to 7.75 °C (SSP1-2.6, Ardabil airport). These forecasts, characterized by decreasing precipitation and significant warming, underscore the likelihood of imminent climate-driven extremes. Consequently, these findings provide a critical foundation for water resource managers to develop targeted risk mitigation strategies and enhance environmental and hydrological resilience in the region.https://deej.kashanu.ac.ir/article_115623_50a176c519b97aa5a1c8f034e13bb3f8.pdfUniversity of KashanDesert Ecosystem Engineering2538-6336155120260823Spatiotemporal Projections of Dust Aerosol Dynamics over Iran Using the RegCM4 Model under RCP4.5: 2030–2060Spatiotemporal Projections of Dust Aerosol Dynamics over Iran Using the RegCM4 Model under RCP4.5: 2030–2060182911565410.22052/deej.2026.258710.1143FAFatemehDargahianFatemeh Dargahian: Associated Professor Research institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran.AlirezaBalalan Fardهواشناسی اداره کل هواشناسی استان البرز، کرج، ایرانSomayehHeydarnezhad..Desertification Researcher, Borujerd Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Campus, Lorestan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research, Education and Extension Center (AREEO), Iran.TahereAghazadehدانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد هواشناسی دانشگاه آزاد تهران شمال، تهران، ایرانSeyed JafarSeyedakhlaghiResearch Institute of Forests and Rangelands, AREEO, Tehran, IranJournal Article20260510Introduction
This study provides a dynamic projection of seasonal and annual dust aerosol distributions over Iran using the coupled RegCM4 regional climate model under the RCP4.5 emission scenario for the 2030–2040 and 2050–2060 horizons. This research addresses a critical knowledge gap, as previous assessments in Iran have largely relied on global model outputs or simulations of historical conditions without the benefit of dynamical downscaling. By employing a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) capable of resolving local-scale physical processes, this study captures the complexities of dust emission, atmospheric transport, and deposition, offering a more nuanced understanding of future dust dynamics in the region.
Methodology
The study utilized boundary conditions derived from global RegCM climate simulations, with 6-hourly temporal resolution extending to 2100. The RegCM4 model was configured with a 40-km horizontal grid resolution, balancing computational feasibility with the requirement to resolve major regional dust sources. Simulations were driven by the RCP4.5 scenarios—representing a moderate greenhouse gas emission pathway—covering the Iranian domain (25°N–45°N and 44°E–64°E). Key physical parameterizations included the Emanuel convection scheme, the Holtslag planetary boundary layer scheme, the NCAR-CCM3 radiation scheme, and the BATS1e land surface scheme. Following a 3-month spin-up period to ensure initialization stability, decadal averages for 2030–2040 and 2050–2060 were analyzed to determine dust trends.
Results
The modeling results successfully identified multiple internal and external dust hotspots. Internal sources were notably active in Sistan and Baluchestan, Kerman, South/Razavi Khorasan, Khuzestan, Bushehr, Hormozgan, and Isfahan provinces. Among these, the Sistan and Baluchestan and Khuzestan regions exhibited the highest frequency and intensity of dust events. External dust contribution was found to be significant from northern Saudi Arabia, the Iraq-Kuwait border, and northeastern regions adjacent to Turkmenistan. Seasonal analysis highlighted distinct behaviors: Sistan and Baluchestan remains active year-round, with peak intensities in autumn and winter linked to the strengthening of the Levar wind system. Conversely, the Khuzestan source, characterized by extensive dry marshlands, exhibits peak mobilization in spring due to the Shamal wind system, which facilitates dust transport from the Tigris-Euphrates basin.
Discussion and conclusion
The projections indicate a clear intensification in both dust production volumes and event frequency throughout the 2030s and 2050s, driven by climate-change-induced declines in soil moisture, altered vegetation cover, and intensified wind patterns under RCP4.5. Furthermore, the identification of emerging dust sources in Turkmenistan poses a heightened risk to northeastern Iran. While the model successfully delineates regional hotspots, it is subject to spatial constraints; the 40-km resolution limits the detection of localized sources smaller than 1,600 km². Consequently, while the model provides a robust assessment of regional-scale dynamics, smaller sources may be underrepresented or smoothed. Despite this, the study’s findings corroborate the urgent need for transboundary cooperation and localized dust mitigation strategies. These results suggest that by 2054, Iran will experience a shift toward significantly warmer and drier conditions, necessitating the integration of these projections into national water resource management and sustainable land-use planning.Introduction
This study provides a dynamic projection of seasonal and annual dust aerosol distributions over Iran using the coupled RegCM4 regional climate model under the RCP4.5 emission scenario for the 2030–2040 and 2050–2060 horizons. This research addresses a critical knowledge gap, as previous assessments in Iran have largely relied on global model outputs or simulations of historical conditions without the benefit of dynamical downscaling. By employing a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) capable of resolving local-scale physical processes, this study captures the complexities of dust emission, atmospheric transport, and deposition, offering a more nuanced understanding of future dust dynamics in the region.
Methodology
The study utilized boundary conditions derived from global RegCM climate simulations, with 6-hourly temporal resolution extending to 2100. The RegCM4 model was configured with a 40-km horizontal grid resolution, balancing computational feasibility with the requirement to resolve major regional dust sources. Simulations were driven by the RCP4.5 scenarios—representing a moderate greenhouse gas emission pathway—covering the Iranian domain (25°N–45°N and 44°E–64°E). Key physical parameterizations included the Emanuel convection scheme, the Holtslag planetary boundary layer scheme, the NCAR-CCM3 radiation scheme, and the BATS1e land surface scheme. Following a 3-month spin-up period to ensure initialization stability, decadal averages for 2030–2040 and 2050–2060 were analyzed to determine dust trends.
Results
The modeling results successfully identified multiple internal and external dust hotspots. Internal sources were notably active in Sistan and Baluchestan, Kerman, South/Razavi Khorasan, Khuzestan, Bushehr, Hormozgan, and Isfahan provinces. Among these, the Sistan and Baluchestan and Khuzestan regions exhibited the highest frequency and intensity of dust events. External dust contribution was found to be significant from northern Saudi Arabia, the Iraq-Kuwait border, and northeastern regions adjacent to Turkmenistan. Seasonal analysis highlighted distinct behaviors: Sistan and Baluchestan remains active year-round, with peak intensities in autumn and winter linked to the strengthening of the Levar wind system. Conversely, the Khuzestan source, characterized by extensive dry marshlands, exhibits peak mobilization in spring due to the Shamal wind system, which facilitates dust transport from the Tigris-Euphrates basin.
Discussion and conclusion
The projections indicate a clear intensification in both dust production volumes and event frequency throughout the 2030s and 2050s, driven by climate-change-induced declines in soil moisture, altered vegetation cover, and intensified wind patterns under RCP4.5. Furthermore, the identification of emerging dust sources in Turkmenistan poses a heightened risk to northeastern Iran. While the model successfully delineates regional hotspots, it is subject to spatial constraints; the 40-km resolution limits the detection of localized sources smaller than 1,600 km². Consequently, while the model provides a robust assessment of regional-scale dynamics, smaller sources may be underrepresented or smoothed. Despite this, the study’s findings corroborate the urgent need for transboundary cooperation and localized dust mitigation strategies. These results suggest that by 2054, Iran will experience a shift toward significantly warmer and drier conditions, necessitating the integration of these projections into national water resource management and sustainable land-use planning.https://deej.kashanu.ac.ir/article_115654_8a3aa59e8341c0c94bc267dbfd8ea3e2.pdfUniversity of KashanDesert Ecosystem Engineering2538-6336155120260823Evaluating the Effectiveness of Integrated Demand Management Scenarios for Controlling Aquifer Depletion: A Case Study of the Qorveh–Dehgolan BasinEvaluating the Effectiveness of Integrated Demand Management Scenarios for Controlling Aquifer Depletion: A Case Study of the Qorveh–Dehgolan Basin304811554810.22052/deej.2026.258197.1133FAAdelSoltaniFaculty of Member Department of Agricultural Technology and Engineering, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran,MiladSoltaniPh.D. Watershed Management and Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, IranJournal Article20260126<strong>Introduction</strong>
Groundwater depletion has emerged as a critical challenge in arid and semi-arid regions, driven by the synergistic effects of agricultural expansion, rapid population growth, climate variability, and unsustainable abstraction practices. In Iran, where agriculture accounts for approximately 90% of total water consumption, diminishing precipitation and prolonged droughts have severely intensified pressure on aquifer systems. The Qorveh–Dehgolan basin, located in northwestern Iran, serves as a prominent example of a highly stressed system where persistent water deficits and over-exploitation of groundwater have led to significant declines in aquifer storage. Given projected climate change scenarios, reduced surface water availability and escalating water demand are expected to further exacerbate groundwater stress. Consequently, evaluating the efficacy of integrated demand-side management strategies is essential for achieving long-term water sustainability. This study aims to quantitatively assess the impacts of individual and combined demand management scenarios on groundwater storage dynamics in the Qorveh–Dehgolan basin under both historical and projected climate conditions.
<strong>Materials and Methods</strong>
The Qorveh–Dehgolan basin covers approximately 7,246 km² and includes three main alluvial aquifers: Dehgolan, Qorveh, and Charduli. Water demands are dominated by agriculture, which accounts for more than 95% of total annual water use, while domestic and industrial demands are fully supplied by groundwater. The integrated Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model was applied to simulate surface water–groundwater interactions over the historical period 2007–2021. Model calibration and validation were conducted using observed streamflow data at the Hasan Khan hydrometric station, yielding satisfactory performance (NSE = 0.82 for calibration and 0.79 for validation). To assess future climate impacts, outputs from three CMIP6 global climate models under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, and SSP8.5 scenarios were downscaled using the LARS-WG weather generator for the period 2026–2045. The IHACRES rainfall–runoff model was employed to estimate future inflows to the Soural, Siah-Sang, and Ghocham reservoirs, and these inflows were incorporated into the WEAP model. Five groundwater demand management scenarios were defined and simulated: (1) installation of smart water meters, (2) sealing of illegal wells, (3) revision of groundwater abstraction permits, (4) regulation of unlicensed wells, and (5) a combined scenario integrating all measures. The impacts of these scenarios on aquifer storage trends were quantitatively evaluated.
<strong>Results</strong>
The Qorveh–Dehgolan basin, spanning approximately 7,246 km², encompasses three primary alluvial aquifers: Dehgolan, Qorveh, and Charduli. Water consumption is predominantly agricultural, accounting for over 95% of total annual demand, while domestic and industrial requirements are exclusively met through groundwater extraction. To simulate surface water–groundwater interactions, the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model was employed for the 2007–2021 historical period. The model was calibrated and validated against observed streamflow data at the Hasan Khan hydrometric station, demonstrating satisfactory performance (Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency [NSE] = 0.82 and 0.79, respectively). To project future climate impacts, outputs from three CMIP6 global climate models under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, and SSP8.5 pathways were downscaled using the LARS-WG weather generator for the 2026–2045 period. Furthermore, the IHACRES rainfall–runoff model was utilized to estimate future inflows to the Soural, Siah-Sang, and Ghocham reservoirs, which were subsequently integrated into the WEAP framework. Finally, five demand-side management scenarios were simulated: (1) installation of smart water meters, (2) decommissioning of illegal wells, (3) revision of groundwater abstraction permits, (4) regulation of unlicensed wells, and (5) a combined scenario encompassing all aforementioned measures. The potential impacts of these strategies on aquifer storage trends were quantitatively assessed.
<strong>Discussion and Conclusion</strong>
Our results demonstrate that groundwater depletion in the Qorveh–Dehgolan basin is primarily driven by agricultural water deficits, a trend likely to intensify under projected climate change. While individual demand-side measures yield measurable benefits, their isolated implementation remains insufficient to effectively counteract long-term aquifer depletion. The superior performance of the combined scenario underscores the necessity of integrating regulatory, technical, and monitoring-based interventions to achieve significant groundwater recovery. Notably, the volume of groundwater saved under the combined scenario closely approximates the average annual agricultural water deficit in the basin, suggesting that comprehensive demand management can substantially mitigate pressure on both groundwater and surface water resources. This finding is particularly salient in regions characterized by pronounced summer aridity, where groundwater serves as a critical buffer against seasonal water scarcity. Ultimately, this study confirms that an integrated approach to groundwater demand management provides a robust and pragmatic pathway toward hydrological sustainability in water-stressed basins. The proposed framework not only addresses current depletion but also enhances long-term resilience to climate variability. Furthermore, these findings offer transferable insights for other arid and semi-arid regions in Iran and beyond, where comparable hydro-climatic and socio-economic conditions prevail.
<br /><br /><strong>Introduction</strong>
Groundwater depletion has emerged as a critical challenge in arid and semi-arid regions, driven by the synergistic effects of agricultural expansion, rapid population growth, climate variability, and unsustainable abstraction practices. In Iran, where agriculture accounts for approximately 90% of total water consumption, diminishing precipitation and prolonged droughts have severely intensified pressure on aquifer systems. The Qorveh–Dehgolan basin, located in northwestern Iran, serves as a prominent example of a highly stressed system where persistent water deficits and over-exploitation of groundwater have led to significant declines in aquifer storage. Given projected climate change scenarios, reduced surface water availability and escalating water demand are expected to further exacerbate groundwater stress. Consequently, evaluating the efficacy of integrated demand-side management strategies is essential for achieving long-term water sustainability. This study aims to quantitatively assess the impacts of individual and combined demand management scenarios on groundwater storage dynamics in the Qorveh–Dehgolan basin under both historical and projected climate conditions.
<strong>Materials and Methods</strong>
The Qorveh–Dehgolan basin covers approximately 7,246 km² and includes three main alluvial aquifers: Dehgolan, Qorveh, and Charduli. Water demands are dominated by agriculture, which accounts for more than 95% of total annual water use, while domestic and industrial demands are fully supplied by groundwater. The integrated Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model was applied to simulate surface water–groundwater interactions over the historical period 2007–2021. Model calibration and validation were conducted using observed streamflow data at the Hasan Khan hydrometric station, yielding satisfactory performance (NSE = 0.82 for calibration and 0.79 for validation). To assess future climate impacts, outputs from three CMIP6 global climate models under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, and SSP8.5 scenarios were downscaled using the LARS-WG weather generator for the period 2026–2045. The IHACRES rainfall–runoff model was employed to estimate future inflows to the Soural, Siah-Sang, and Ghocham reservoirs, and these inflows were incorporated into the WEAP model. Five groundwater demand management scenarios were defined and simulated: (1) installation of smart water meters, (2) sealing of illegal wells, (3) revision of groundwater abstraction permits, (4) regulation of unlicensed wells, and (5) a combined scenario integrating all measures. The impacts of these scenarios on aquifer storage trends were quantitatively evaluated.
<strong>Results</strong>
The Qorveh–Dehgolan basin, spanning approximately 7,246 km², encompasses three primary alluvial aquifers: Dehgolan, Qorveh, and Charduli. Water consumption is predominantly agricultural, accounting for over 95% of total annual demand, while domestic and industrial requirements are exclusively met through groundwater extraction. To simulate surface water–groundwater interactions, the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model was employed for the 2007–2021 historical period. The model was calibrated and validated against observed streamflow data at the Hasan Khan hydrometric station, demonstrating satisfactory performance (Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency [NSE] = 0.82 and 0.79, respectively). To project future climate impacts, outputs from three CMIP6 global climate models under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, and SSP8.5 pathways were downscaled using the LARS-WG weather generator for the 2026–2045 period. Furthermore, the IHACRES rainfall–runoff model was utilized to estimate future inflows to the Soural, Siah-Sang, and Ghocham reservoirs, which were subsequently integrated into the WEAP framework. Finally, five demand-side management scenarios were simulated: (1) installation of smart water meters, (2) decommissioning of illegal wells, (3) revision of groundwater abstraction permits, (4) regulation of unlicensed wells, and (5) a combined scenario encompassing all aforementioned measures. The potential impacts of these strategies on aquifer storage trends were quantitatively assessed.
<strong>Discussion and Conclusion</strong>
Our results demonstrate that groundwater depletion in the Qorveh–Dehgolan basin is primarily driven by agricultural water deficits, a trend likely to intensify under projected climate change. While individual demand-side measures yield measurable benefits, their isolated implementation remains insufficient to effectively counteract long-term aquifer depletion. The superior performance of the combined scenario underscores the necessity of integrating regulatory, technical, and monitoring-based interventions to achieve significant groundwater recovery. Notably, the volume of groundwater saved under the combined scenario closely approximates the average annual agricultural water deficit in the basin, suggesting that comprehensive demand management can substantially mitigate pressure on both groundwater and surface water resources. This finding is particularly salient in regions characterized by pronounced summer aridity, where groundwater serves as a critical buffer against seasonal water scarcity. Ultimately, this study confirms that an integrated approach to groundwater demand management provides a robust and pragmatic pathway toward hydrological sustainability in water-stressed basins. The proposed framework not only addresses current depletion but also enhances long-term resilience to climate variability. Furthermore, these findings offer transferable insights for other arid and semi-arid regions in Iran and beyond, where comparable hydro-climatic and socio-economic conditions prevail.
<br /><br />https://deej.kashanu.ac.ir/article_115548_b51efe14e94ae6a1a16f02588fe3ac7d.pdfUniversity of KashanDesert Ecosystem Engineering2538-6336155120260823Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential and Sustainability of Offshore Wind Energy in the Persian GulfAssessing the Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential and Sustainability of Offshore Wind Energy in the Persian Gulf496811554910.22052/deej.2026.258590.1141FAAhmadNohegarDepartment of Disaster Engineering, Education and Environmental Systems, Faculty of Environment, University of TehranMahmoudBehrouziResearch Institute of Marine Sciences - University of Tehran - TehranMohammadMadanifarDepartment of Project and Construction Management, Faculty of Architecture, University of TehranMahmoodNamaziDepartment of Civil EngineeringJournal Article20260426<strong>Introduction</strong>
Global atmospheric warming is fundamentally altering atmospheric circulation patterns, which directly influence wind regimes and their associated variability. Consequently, climate change is anticipated to exert a significant impact on future wind characteristics and, by extension, the reliability of wind energy resources. Given that wind power density is highly sensitive to wind velocity, even marginal shifts in wind speed can substantially affect offshore wind energy generation. Despite the rising global prominence of offshore wind energy, the specific impacts of climate change on power density and energy potential within the Persian Gulf have received limited academic attention. To address this research gap, the present study evaluates the impacts of climate change on offshore wind energy potential in the coastal region of Bushehr, situated in the northern Persian Gulf, under various projected climate scenarios.
<strong>Materials and Methods</strong>
This study aims to assess the clean energy generation potential of offshore wind turbines along the Bushehr coastline and to project future energy extraction capacity under CMIP6 climate scenarios. Historical wind speed data (1980–2024) were retrieved from the Bushehr coastal meteorological station. Future wind patterns for the 2025–2050 period were simulated using the CESM2 global climate model under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 forcing scenarios. To characterize wind speed distribution, wind power density (WPD), and energy potential for both historical and future periods, the Weibull distribution function—characterized by its shape (k) and scale (c) parameters—was applied. WPD was computed at the turbine hub height, and annual electricity generation potential was estimated based on the deployment of 5 MW offshore wind turbines. Furthermore, the InVEST offshore wind energy model was utilized to evaluate energy production capacity, socio-economic indicators, and carbon offset potential under both baseline and projected climate conditions.
<strong> </strong>
<strong>Results</strong>
Analysis of wind speed anomalies in the coastal regions of Bushehr revealed a transition from predominantly negative anomalies during 1980–2000 to positive anomalies post-2000, indicating a trend toward intensification of wind conditions in recent decades, with peak anomalies observed during 2010–2015. Climate projections suggest that rising air temperatures will likely intensify offshore wind speeds across the Persian Gulf. Relative to the baseline period (1980–2024), mean wind speed is projected to increase from 5.78 m/s to 6.1, 6.3, and 6.7 m/s under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, representing growth rates of approximately 6%, 8%, and 14%.
Consistent with these shifts, wind power density (WPD) is projected to experience substantial growth under future climate conditions. Compared to the baseline, WPD is expected to rise by approximately 20%, 23%, and 27% under the respective SSP scenarios. Incorporating bathymetric constraints and turbine installation costs, our findings indicate that a single 5 MW offshore turbine, which generates approximately 17.79 GWh/year under baseline conditions, could see its energy output increase by 13% to 21% depending on the climate pathway. Similarly, a 20-turbine wind farm, currently capable of generating ~355 GWh/year, is projected to experience a capacity increase of 13% to 22%. Finally, the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), estimated at 0.015 USD/kWh in the baseline period, is projected to decline to approximately 0.011, 0.010, and 0.013 USD/kWh under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, highlighting the enhanced economic viability of offshore wind energy in the region under future climate projections.
<strong>Discussion and Conclusion</strong>
Offshore wind energy has experienced rapid global expansion, driven by superior wind resource availability and proximity to coastal demand centers. This study demonstrates that the Bushehr coastal region possesses significant offshore wind energy potential, which is projected to persist—and potentially enhance—under evolving climate conditions. Our findings indicate that anticipated increases in wind speed and power density will likely bolster energy generation capacity, thereby improving the economic feasibility of offshore wind projects in the region. The results further suggest that deploying twenty 5 MW offshore turbines within 15 km of the Bushehr coastline could generate approximately 355 GWh/year of clean electricity, effectively offsetting nearly 0.24 million tons of carbon emissions annually. Compared to fossil-fuel-based power generation in Iran, this transition offers substantial environmental benefits. Furthermore, our uncertainty analysis, utilizing Monte Carlo simulations, reveals notable variability in the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). Complementary tornado analysis identifies wind speed as the most influential driver of LCOE, underscoring the critical importance of accurate wind resource assessment for project economics. Overall, these findings highlight the immense potential of the Bushehr coastline as a strategic hub for sustainable offshore wind development, providing a robust pathway for diversifying Iran’s energy portfolio while mitigating climate-related risks.<strong>Introduction</strong>
Global atmospheric warming is fundamentally altering atmospheric circulation patterns, which directly influence wind regimes and their associated variability. Consequently, climate change is anticipated to exert a significant impact on future wind characteristics and, by extension, the reliability of wind energy resources. Given that wind power density is highly sensitive to wind velocity, even marginal shifts in wind speed can substantially affect offshore wind energy generation. Despite the rising global prominence of offshore wind energy, the specific impacts of climate change on power density and energy potential within the Persian Gulf have received limited academic attention. To address this research gap, the present study evaluates the impacts of climate change on offshore wind energy potential in the coastal region of Bushehr, situated in the northern Persian Gulf, under various projected climate scenarios.
<strong>Materials and Methods</strong>
This study aims to assess the clean energy generation potential of offshore wind turbines along the Bushehr coastline and to project future energy extraction capacity under CMIP6 climate scenarios. Historical wind speed data (1980–2024) were retrieved from the Bushehr coastal meteorological station. Future wind patterns for the 2025–2050 period were simulated using the CESM2 global climate model under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 forcing scenarios. To characterize wind speed distribution, wind power density (WPD), and energy potential for both historical and future periods, the Weibull distribution function—characterized by its shape (k) and scale (c) parameters—was applied. WPD was computed at the turbine hub height, and annual electricity generation potential was estimated based on the deployment of 5 MW offshore wind turbines. Furthermore, the InVEST offshore wind energy model was utilized to evaluate energy production capacity, socio-economic indicators, and carbon offset potential under both baseline and projected climate conditions.
<strong> </strong>
<strong>Results</strong>
Analysis of wind speed anomalies in the coastal regions of Bushehr revealed a transition from predominantly negative anomalies during 1980–2000 to positive anomalies post-2000, indicating a trend toward intensification of wind conditions in recent decades, with peak anomalies observed during 2010–2015. Climate projections suggest that rising air temperatures will likely intensify offshore wind speeds across the Persian Gulf. Relative to the baseline period (1980–2024), mean wind speed is projected to increase from 5.78 m/s to 6.1, 6.3, and 6.7 m/s under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, representing growth rates of approximately 6%, 8%, and 14%.
Consistent with these shifts, wind power density (WPD) is projected to experience substantial growth under future climate conditions. Compared to the baseline, WPD is expected to rise by approximately 20%, 23%, and 27% under the respective SSP scenarios. Incorporating bathymetric constraints and turbine installation costs, our findings indicate that a single 5 MW offshore turbine, which generates approximately 17.79 GWh/year under baseline conditions, could see its energy output increase by 13% to 21% depending on the climate pathway. Similarly, a 20-turbine wind farm, currently capable of generating ~355 GWh/year, is projected to experience a capacity increase of 13% to 22%. Finally, the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), estimated at 0.015 USD/kWh in the baseline period, is projected to decline to approximately 0.011, 0.010, and 0.013 USD/kWh under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, highlighting the enhanced economic viability of offshore wind energy in the region under future climate projections.
<strong>Discussion and Conclusion</strong>
Offshore wind energy has experienced rapid global expansion, driven by superior wind resource availability and proximity to coastal demand centers. This study demonstrates that the Bushehr coastal region possesses significant offshore wind energy potential, which is projected to persist—and potentially enhance—under evolving climate conditions. Our findings indicate that anticipated increases in wind speed and power density will likely bolster energy generation capacity, thereby improving the economic feasibility of offshore wind projects in the region. The results further suggest that deploying twenty 5 MW offshore turbines within 15 km of the Bushehr coastline could generate approximately 355 GWh/year of clean electricity, effectively offsetting nearly 0.24 million tons of carbon emissions annually. Compared to fossil-fuel-based power generation in Iran, this transition offers substantial environmental benefits. Furthermore, our uncertainty analysis, utilizing Monte Carlo simulations, reveals notable variability in the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). Complementary tornado analysis identifies wind speed as the most influential driver of LCOE, underscoring the critical importance of accurate wind resource assessment for project economics. Overall, these findings highlight the immense potential of the Bushehr coastline as a strategic hub for sustainable offshore wind development, providing a robust pathway for diversifying Iran’s energy portfolio while mitigating climate-related risks.https://deej.kashanu.ac.ir/article_115549_df8f1f8433b62928f1beae41f4177f12.pdf