University of Kashan Desert Ecosystem Engineering 2538-6336 14 49 2026 02 20 Identification of temperature hot spots in the Zagros natural habitat based on global standard indicators revealing climate change Identification of temperature hot spots in the Zagros natural habitat based on global standard indicators revealing climate change 93 111 115334 ‎10.22052/deej.2026.258289.1135 FA Fatemeh Dargahian Associate Professor, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO) 0000-0002-8339-5794 Mehdi Pourhashemi Prof., Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran. Somayeh Heydarnezhad Ph.D. in Desertification, Researcher at the Desertification Research Department of Lorestan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Borujerd Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Campus Journal Article 2026 01 25 One of the most important consequences of climate change is the reduction of forest area. The decrease in the area and the decline of oak forests in the Zagros ecosystem in western Iran, especially in the last two decades, is directly and indirectly affected by the occurrence of climate change, especially the increase in temperature This study investigates climate change impacts on the Zagros oak forest ecosystem in western Iran, focusing on warming trends and their spatial distribution. Using observational data from 34 synoptic stations and the ClimPACT software in R, we analyzed eight temperature indices (SU25, SU30, SU35, TN90p, TX90p, TX50p, WSDI2, WSDI6) standardized by the Expert Team on Climate Risk and Sector-Specific Climate Indices (ET-CRSCI). Results reveal a significant warming trend, with the most pronounced increases in warm temperature indices occurring at the highest latitudes of the northern Zagros and the highest elevations of the southern Zagros. Persistent hotspots were identified in northwestern Fars and southwestern Ilam provinces. Critically, the index representing prolonged warm spells (WSDI6) showed the strongest increase in the southern Zagros, an area coinciding with the highest frequency of wildfires in the past decade. This suggests that persistent heat accelerates ecosystem drying, thereby intensifying fire risk and damage. Identifying these thermal hotspots provides crucial insights for adaptive management and planning, enabling more resilient conservation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on this vital ecosystem. One of the most important consequences of climate change is the reduction of forest area. The decrease in the area and the decline of oak forests in the Zagros ecosystem in western Iran, especially in the last two decades, is directly and indirectly affected by the occurrence of climate change, especially the increase in temperature This study investigates climate change impacts on the Zagros oak forest ecosystem in western Iran, focusing on warming trends and their spatial distribution. Using observational data from 34 synoptic stations and the ClimPACT software in R, we analyzed eight temperature indices (SU25, SU30, SU35, TN90p, TX90p, TX50p, WSDI2, WSDI6) standardized by the Expert Team on Climate Risk and Sector-Specific Climate Indices (ET-CRSCI). Results reveal a significant warming trend, with the most pronounced increases in warm temperature indices occurring at the highest latitudes of the northern Zagros and the highest elevations of the southern Zagros. Persistent hotspots were identified in northwestern Fars and southwestern Ilam provinces. Critically, the index representing prolonged warm spells (WSDI6) showed the strongest increase in the southern Zagros, an area coinciding with the highest frequency of wildfires in the past decade. This suggests that persistent heat accelerates ecosystem drying, thereby intensifying fire risk and damage. Identifying these thermal hotspots provides crucial insights for adaptive management and planning, enabling more resilient conservation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on this vital ecosystem. https://deej.kashanu.ac.ir/article_115334_109e86ba0d6e21845978ce579c091b25.pdf