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Climate change and the decline in groundwater table have been one of the main causes of land degradation in the past decades, causing soil and vegetation, especially in arid areas, to degrade. The purpose of this study was to model the flow of groundwater with the GMS model in the Kerman plain aquifer under the influence of climate change for the upcoming period. For this purpose, HADCM3 model and A1B, B1 and A2 scenarios were used to investigate the effect of climate change on aquifer volume and groundwater drops. Finally, considering the application of four different scenarios, the performance of each of the management options and the effects of different climate scenarios has been evaluated on the decline of the aquifer. The results of the exponential microscopy indicate an increase in the minimum temperature between 0.59 to 0.86 degrees Celsius and a maximum temperature increase of between 0.56 to 0.85 degrees Celsius. Comparison of long-term annual precipitation shows that the least amount of precipitation will occur during scenario B1 during the period from 2011 to 2030, which is equivalent to 10.22 mm more than the base period rainfall. This is while the highest precipitation levels will occur with the increase of 80/15 mm during the period 2011-2030 in scenario A2. According to the results of simulation of groundwater, the GMS model has acceptable accuracy for simulating the aquifer in Kerman Plain. After providing the proper performance of the GMS model, four different scenarios were used to simulate the effect of climate change on the level of the station, and the changes of the aquifer were compared to the base period. The results indicate a sharp decline in groundwater levels in the future periods.

Type of Study: Research | Subject: water resource management
Received: 2019/06/3 | Accepted: 2019/09/21

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